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LUCKORSKILL

Luck or Skill

Live Data • Alert data refreshed

Polymarket wallets ranked by Bayesian skill score, not raw PnL. Filters out lucky streaks and oversized market makers so you can see who consistently wins across a meaningful sample.

Monitor trades from tier-1 wallets currently classified as Skilled.

Tracked Wallets
Skill
26
Edge
55
Luck
77

Public Wallets Tracked

Tier-1 screened wallets: 354

26 Skill 55 Edge 77 Luck 196 Unclassified

Public tier-1 wallets ranked by Bayesian skill score across all markets.

Skilled Wallet Avg

74.3%

Average win rate across 26 Skilled wallets.

Whale Alerts Tracked

7,733

Whale moves captured to date.

Resolved Alert Win Rate

100.0%

39 of 7,733 alerts resolved; 7,694 still pending market settlement.

Real-time Skilled Whale Alerts

updated 41m ago
View all alerts
Market Category

323 unique wallets with classified positions across 8 categories. A wallet trading in multiple categories is counted once here but in each category tab.

Note: counts reflect tier-1 wallets with positions in classified markets. Wallets without a linked market category are excluded from these counts but still appear in the main leaderboard.

Skill Classification
Skill = proven over a real sample size.Edge = promising, but less proven.Luck = hot streak risk.
77 rows
1–25 of 77
#1suntori
−$12.3K
Skill
46%
WR 46.4%Trades 466
46.2%
#2The Sp...>UMA
+$1.01M
Skill
45%
WR 41.8%Trades 335
44.7%
#3TimeTraveler
−$29.3K
Skill
44%
WR 44.4%Trades 205
44.1%
#4Pol.1
+$11.1K
Skill
44%
WR 44.2%Trades 197
43.6%
#5Anjun
−$347.4K
Skill
43%
WR 43.1%Trades 211
42.9%
#60x2a2C...5461
−$80.0K
Skill
43%
WR 43.5%Trades 200
42.8%
#7gloriafoster
−$51.4K
Skill
43%
WR 43.8%Trades 203
42.6%
#8Semyon...adov
−$1.30M
Skill
42%
WR 42.4%Trades 203
42.2%
#9afkpnlucl
+$276.8K
Skill
42%
WR 42.3%Trades 111
41.7%
#10mantre
−$8.5K
Skill
41%
WR 42.6%Trades 202
41.3%
#11prop-y
−$24.0K
Skill
41%
WR 41.4%Trades 210
41.3%
#1299problems123
−$170.6K
Skill
41%
WR 41.5%Trades 207
41.2%
#13TBill1
−$31.4K
Skill
41%
WR 41.0%Trades 195
40.8%
#14Countryside
−$3.38M
Skill
39%
WR 39.7%Trades 204
39.3%
#15BreakTheBank
−$2.74M
Skill
39%
WR 39.2%Trades 222
39.2%
#16mooseborzoi
−$1.36M
Skill
38%
WR 38.4%Trades 211
38.4%
#17Joe-Biden
+$368.5K
Skill
38%
WR 33.7%Trades 199
37.5%
#18NDLG
+$502
Skill
38%
WR 37.5%Trades 160
37.6%
#19vkvkgjerkgk
−$47.5K
Skill
37%
WR 37.4%Trades 257
37.4%
#20cookie96
+$232
Skill
37%
WR 37.4%Trades 123
36.9%
#21sainta...twin
+$44.3K
Skill
35%
WR 34.2%Trades 202
34.5%
#22purplegatto
−$1.52M
Skill
34%
WR 33.6%Trades 223
33.7%
#230x440a...3240
−$74.4K
Skill
33%
WR 31.4%Trades 35
32.5%
#24Gucky-45
+$471.3K
Skill
33%
WR 33.2%Trades 205
33.2%
#25jingxingyhh
−$48.3K
Skill
33%
WR 36.0%Trades 125
32.7%
77 rows
1–25 of 77

Stop copying Market Makers. Start copying Snipers.

Polymarket ranks wallets by raw profit. We rank the traders who keep being right across real samples, so you can separate repeat edge from one lucky heater.

Polymarket Native

  • Ranks by Absolute Profit

    A single moonshot bet ranks the same as 10,000 disciplined edge trades. HFT bots and market makers dominate the top spots.

  • Capital Intensive

    The top wallets deploy millions in liquidity to capture pennies per trade. Retail traders cannot replicate these strategies.

  • Misleading for Copying

    Mirroring volume-based rankings leads to slippage, fees, and losses. Raw profit doesn't mean consistent edge.

Bayesian Leaderboard

  • Ranks by Bayesian Skill Score

    Controls for sample size and prior probability. A 95% win rate on 5 trades ranks below a 72% win rate on 200 trades.

  • Actionable Signal

    Designed for real copy traders. High scores mean consistent edge, not oversized market-making capital.

  • Built for Whales & Retail

    Whether you deploy $100 or $100K, skill is skill. We surface talent, not treasury size.

Start Tracking The Smart Money
How it works

Separate signal from noise in three steps

  1. 1

    Analyze screened wallets

    We analyze a bounded sample of resolved positions for screened public wallets and connect each position to its market.

  2. 2

    Score with Bayesian statistics

    Each wallet gets a beta-Bernoulli posterior against a 50% prior — separating real edge from a lucky streak.

  3. 3

    Monitor trades in real time

    Our free whale alert feed surfaces new trades as they are processed. Execution and copy trading are provided independently by PolyBot through disclosed referral links.