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cookie96

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

Low Hit Rate, Heavy Payoffs

$232 net profit from $59K of volume, with a 37.4% win rate across 123 trades, a 37% skill score, and a 0.4% return on volume.

Profit depends more on payoff size than win frequency, so drawdowns may be uneven.

Skill
37%
Confidence
1.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

37.4%

Trades

123

Net P&L

+$232

Total Vol

$59.0K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 123 resolved trades (Beta(24, 41))

Cumulative Realized P&L

123 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 123 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -5.2%

Yes35W / 58L
37.6%

93 resolved positions

No6W / 8L
42.9%

14 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (123)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 123

BUYENGLAND$52
Shares200.0
Total Traded$52.00
Avg Price0.260
ClosedJul 11
BUYYES$40
Shares500.0
Total Traded$40.00
Avg Price0.080
ClosedJul 9
BUYYES+$10.8K
Shares634,477.6
Total Traded$9,447.37
Avg Price0.015
ClosedJul 7
BUYYES$1,000
Shares3,333.3
Total Traded$1,000.00
Avg Price0.300
ClosedJul 6
BUYYES+$352
Shares440.0
Total Traded$88.00
Avg Price0.200
ClosedJul 5
BUYYES+$2.2K
Shares100,000.0
Total Traded$1,200.00
Avg Price0.012
ClosedJul 5
BUYYES+$46
Shares96.2
Total Traded$50.00
Avg Price0.520
ClosedJul 4
BUYYES$30
Shares433.3
Total Traded$30.00
Avg Price0.069
ClosedJul 4
BUYYES+$34
Shares80.0
Total Traded$46.40
Avg Price0.580
ClosedJul 3
BUYYES+$43
Shares100.0
Total Traded$57.00
Avg Price0.570
ClosedJul 3

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$15,526

Win / Loss

9W / 11L

Win Rate

45.0%

Avg Return

+776.3%

15 of 20

#1Spread: England (-1.5)
Jul 11, 2026 @ 26.0¢
$100
BUYENGLAND-100.0%
#2Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Morocco?
Jul 9, 2026 @ 8.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 7, 2026 @ 1.5¢
+$6,616
BUYYES+6615.9%
#4Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?
Jul 6, 2026 @ 30.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
Jul 5, 2026 @ 20.0¢
+$400
BUYYES+400.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.