NDLG
Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
Low Hit Rate, Heavy Payoffs
$502 net profit from $16K of volume, with a 37.5% win rate across 160 trades, a 38% skill score, and a 3.1% return on volume.
Profit depends more on payoff size than win frequency, so drawdowns may be uneven.
- Skill
- 38%
- Confidence
- 0.1%
Win Rate
37.5%
Trades
160
Net P&L
+$502
Total Vol
$16.4K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 160 resolved trades (Beta(59, 97))
Cumulative Realized P&L
160 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 160 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: +5.4%
98 resolved positions
6 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (160)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 160
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
$826
Win / Loss
4W / 16L
Win Rate
20.0%
Avg Return
-41.3%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.