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The Sp...>UMA

Last updated Jul 14, 04:02 PM

Top activity:politicsstrait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

High-Volume Winner

$1M net profit from $6.1M of volume, with a 41.8% win rate across 335 trades, a 45% skill score, and a 16.5% return on volume.

The results are substantial; only the repeatability of the edge remains under review.

Skill
45%
Confidence
4%
Share on X

Win Rate

41.8%

Trades

335

Net P&L

+$1.0M

Total Vol

$6.1M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 335 resolved trades (Beta(122, 150))

Cumulative Realized P&L

335 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 335 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -21.5%

Yes78W / 146L
34.8%

224 resolved positions

No62W / 48L
56.4%

110 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (335)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 335

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$3.8K
Shares440,710.7
Total Traded$3,442.83
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 14
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
BUYYES+$481
Shares623,886.4
Total Traded$4,873.80
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 12
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
BUYYES−$488
Shares440,710.7
Total Traded$3,442.83
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 12
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$5.0K
Shares278,134.8
Total Traded$2,172.79
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 11
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%?
BUYYES+$9
Shares10.0
Total Traded$1.25
Avg Price0.125
ClosedJul 11
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
BUYYES+$21.2K
Shares32,202.3
Total Traded$10,800.07
Avg Price0.335
ClosedJul 10
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
BUYYES−$180
Shares623,886.4
Total Traded$4,873.80
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 10
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$8.7K
Shares639,731.9
Total Traded$4,997.59
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 10
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?
BUYNO−$1.5K
Shares3,114.3
Total Traded$2,648.88
Avg Price0.851
ClosedJul 9
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?
BUYYES−$122
Shares20,032.6
Total Traded$19,422.40
Avg Price0.970
ClosedJul 9

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$114,732

Win / Loss

15W / 5L

Win Rate

75.0%

Avg Return

+5736.6%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,701
BUYYES+12700.8%
#2Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,701
BUYYES+12700.8%
#3Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 0.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Jul 11, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,701
BUYYES+12700.8%
#5Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by less than 5%?
Jul 11, 2026 @ 12.5¢
+$700
BUYYES+700.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.