purplegatto

Last updated Jul 14, 08:02 PM

Top activity:sports fifwc-eng-gha-2026-06-23-more-markets

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$1.5M net loss from $1.9M of volume, with a 33.6% win rate across 223 trades, a 34% skill score, and a -80.4% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill: 34%
Confidence: 0%

Share on X

Win Rate

33.6%

Trades

223

Net P&L

−$1.5M

Total Vol

$1.9M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 223 resolved trades (Beta(78, 152))

Cumulative Realized P&L

223 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 223 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -13.7%

Yes17W / 42L

28.8%

59 resolved positions

No20W / 27L

42.6%

47 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (223)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 223

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	BUYNO	40.0	$21.20	0.530	−$21	Jul 14
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles	BUYYES	571.7	$301.37	0.527	−$301	Jul 14
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?	BUYNO	8.0	$7.52	0.940	+$0	Jul 14
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants	BUYTORONTO BLUE JAYS	14,794.0	$7,544.94	0.510	−$7.5K	Jul 14
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?	BUYYES	117.0	$2.93	0.025	+$105	Jul 14
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins	BUYYES	927.0	$474.14	0.511	−$474	Jul 14
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds	BUYYES	5,021.5	$2,851.78	0.568	−$2.9K	Jul 14
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?	BUYNO	179.0	$1.79	0.010	−$10	Jul 14
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins	BUYYES	2,325.5	$1,245.30	0.536	−$1.2K	Jul 14
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	BUYNO	52.0	$51.69	0.994	+$0	Jul 14

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

BUYNO−$21

Shares40.0

Total Traded$21.20

Avg Price0.530

ClosedJul 14

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles

BUYYES−$301

Shares571.7

Total Traded$301.37

Avg Price0.527

ClosedJul 14

Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?

BUYNO+$0

Shares8.0

Total Traded$7.52

Avg Price0.940

ClosedJul 14

Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants

BUYTORONTO BLUE JAYS−$7.5K

Shares14,794.0

Total Traded$7,544.94

Avg Price0.510

ClosedJul 14

Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?

BUYYES+$105

Shares117.0

Total Traded$2.93

Avg Price0.025

ClosedJul 14

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins

BUYYES−$474

Shares927.0

Total Traded$474.14

Avg Price0.511

ClosedJul 14

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds

BUYYES−$2.9K

Shares5,021.5

Total Traded$2,851.78

Avg Price0.568

ClosedJul 14

Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?

BUYNO−$10

Shares179.0

Total Traded$1.79

Avg Price0.010

ClosedJul 14

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins

BUYYES−$1.2K

Shares2,325.5

Total Traded$1,245.30

Avg Price0.536

ClosedJul 14

Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?

BUYNO+$0

Shares52.0

Total Traded$51.69

Avg Price0.994

ClosedJul 14

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$2,207

Win / Loss

3W / 17L

Win Rate

15.0%

Avg Return

+110.3%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh PiratesJul 14, 2026 @ 53.0¢BUYNO188.753.0¢$100$100-100.0%

2Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore OriolesJul 14, 2026 @ 52.7¢BUYYES189.752.7¢$100$100-100.0%

3Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?Jul 14, 2026 @ 94.0¢BUYNO106.494.0¢$100+$6+6.4%

4Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsJul 14, 2026 @ 51.0¢BUYTORONTO BLUE JAYS196.151.0¢$100$100-100.0%

5Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?Jul 14, 2026 @ 2.5¢BUYYES4,000.02.5¢$100+$3,900+3900.0%

#1Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Jul 14, 2026 @ 53.0¢

$100

BUYNO-100.0%

#2Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles

Jul 14, 2026 @ 52.7¢

$100

BUYYES-100.0%

#3Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?

Jul 14, 2026 @ 94.0¢

+$6

BUYNO+6.4%

#4Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants

Jul 14, 2026 @ 51.0¢

$100

BUYTORONTO BLUE JAYS-100.0%

#5Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?

Jul 14, 2026 @ 2.5¢

+$3,900

BUYYES+3900.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.