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prop-y

Last updated Jul 15, 07:02 PM

Top activity:sportsworld-cup-winner
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$24K net loss from $195K of volume, with a 41.4% win rate across 210 trades, a 41% skill score, and a -12.3% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
41%
Confidence
0.6%
Share on X

Win Rate

41.4%

Trades

210

Net P&L

−$24.0K

Total Vol

$195.4K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 210 resolved trades (Beta(86, 122))

Cumulative Realized P&L

210 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 210 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +10.6%

Yes13W / 21L
38.2%

34 resolved positions

No8W / 21L
27.6%

29 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (210)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 210

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$2.0K
Shares33,893.9
Total Traded$10,848.74
Avg Price0.320
ClosedJul 15
Solana Up or Down on July 15?
BUYDOWN−$10
Shares1,074.7
Total Traded$10.00
Avg Price0.009
ClosedJul 15
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 15?
BUYDOWN+$51
Shares165.1
Total Traded$4.13
Avg Price0.025
ClosedJul 15
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$647
Shares2,165.2
Total Traded$2,120.24
Avg Price0.979
ClosedJul 15
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 15?
BUYUP+$74
Shares881.3
Total Traded$748.76
Avg Price0.850
ClosedJul 15
Ethereum Up or Down on July 15?
BUYUP−$23
Shares190.0
Total Traded$117.93
Avg Price0.621
ClosedJul 15
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$34
Shares822.2
Total Traded$744.41
Avg Price0.905
ClosedJul 15
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$93
Shares1,018.0
Total Traded$526.62
Avg Price0.517
ClosedJul 15
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$78
Shares953.0
Total Traded$554.65
Avg Price0.582
ClosedJul 15
Ethereum Up or Down on July 15?
BUYDOWN+$34
Shares338.7
Total Traded$0.34
Avg Price0.001
ClosedJul 15

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$102,542

Win / Loss

6W / 14L

Win Rate

30.0%

Avg Return

+5127.1%

1–5 of 20

#1Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 32.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Solana Up or Down on July 15?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 0.9¢
$100
BUYDOWN-100.0%
#3Bitcoin Up or Down on July 15?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 2.5¢
+$3,900
BUYDOWN+3900.0%
#4Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 97.9¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#5Bitcoin Up or Down on July 15?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 85.0¢
+$18
BUYUP+17.7%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.