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jingxingyhh

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsworld-cup-winner
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$48K net loss from $371K of volume, with a 36.0% win rate across 125 trades, a 33% skill score, and a -13.0% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
33%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

36.0%

Trades

125

Net P&L

−$48.3K

Total Vol

$370.9K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 125 resolved trades (Beta(34, 68))

Cumulative Realized P&L

125 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 125 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -45.3%

Yes21W / 57L
26.9%

78 resolved positions

No13W / 5L
72.2%

18 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (125)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 125

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$3.0K
Shares50,000.0
Total Traded$46,999.99
Avg Price0.940
ClosedJul 12
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$280
Shares40,000.0
Total Traded$960.00
Avg Price0.024
ClosedJul 12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYNORWAY−$1.1K
Shares2,999.9
Total Traded$1,072.46
Avg Price0.357
ClosedJul 11
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Morocco?
BUYYES−$20
Shares999.5
Total Traded$19.99
Avg Price0.020
ClosedJul 9
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$18.3K
Shares179,999.4
Total Traded$140,622.39
Avg Price0.781
ClosedJul 9
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Morocco?
BUYYES−$10
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$10.00
Avg Price0.010
ClosedJul 9
Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?
BUYYES−$5.6K
Shares19,999.8
Total Traded$5,599.93
Avg Price0.280
ClosedJul 7
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
BUYNO−$270
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$269.99
Avg Price0.270
ClosedJul 7
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?
BUYYES−$5.4K
Shares14,618.4
Total Traded$5,408.80
Avg Price0.370
ClosedJul 7
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 England?
BUYYES−$60
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$60.00
Avg Price0.060
ClosedJul 6

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$2,935

Win / Loss

7W / 13L

Win Rate

35.0%

Avg Return

+146.7%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 94.0¢
+$6
BUYNO+6.4%
#2Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 2.4¢
+$4,067
BUYYES+4066.7%
#3Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 11, 2026 @ 35.7¢
$100
BUYNORWAY-100.0%
#4Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Morocco?
Jul 9, 2026 @ 2.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 9, 2026 @ 78.1¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.