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TBill1

Last updated Jul 15, 10:02 PM

Top activity:politicspresidential-election-winner-2028
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$31K net loss from $2.2M of volume, with a 41.0% win rate across 195 trades, a 41% skill score, and a -1.4% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
41%
Confidence
0.5%
Share on X

Win Rate

41.0%

Trades

195

Net P&L

−$31.4K

Total Vol

$2.2M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 195 resolved trades (Beta(79, 114))

Cumulative Realized P&L

195 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 195 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +4.5%

Yes44W / 60L
42.3%

104 resolved positions

No28W / 46L
37.8%

74 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (195)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 195

England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
BUYENGLAND+$611
Shares20,300.0
Total Traded$507.50
Avg Price0.025
ClosedJul 15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
BUYNO−$1.9K
Shares7,889.6
Total Traded$6,923.71
Avg Price0.878
ClosedJul 15
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$3.8K
Shares8,000.0
Total Traded$7,810.90
Avg Price0.976
ClosedJul 15
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
BUYYES−$3.1K
Shares28,576.2
Total Traded$17,441.93
Avg Price0.610
ClosedJul 14
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
BUYSPAIN−$9.9K
Shares20,000.0
Total Traded$19,894.94
Avg Price0.995
ClosedJul 14
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
BUYFRANCE+$9.9K
Shares20,000.0
Total Traded$50.00
Avg Price0.003
ClosedJul 14
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$4.0K
Shares9,099.6
Total Traded$8,531.31
Avg Price0.938
ClosedJul 14
Fed rate hike in 2026?
BUYNO−$49
Shares729.2
Total Traded$335.41
Avg Price0.460
ClosedJul 13
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?
BUYYES+$30.1K
Shares60,350.0
Total Traded$30,288.16
Avg Price0.502
ClosedJul 12
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
BUYCONOR MCGREGOR−$10
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$10.00
Avg Price0.001
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$43,020

Win / Loss

8W / 12L

Win Rate

40.0%

Avg Return

+2151.0%

1–5 of 20

#1England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Jul 15, 2026 @ 2.5¢
+$3,900
BUYENGLAND+3900.0%
#2Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 87.8¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#3Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 97.6¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#4Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 61.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
Jul 14, 2026 @ 99.5¢
$100
BUYSPAIN-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.