suntori

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sports wnba-ind-las-2026-07-12

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$12K net loss from $56K of volume, with a 46.4% win rate across 466 trades, a 46% skill score, and a -22.0% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill: 46%
Confidence: 4.9%

Share on X

Win Rate

46.4%

Trades

466

Net P&L

−$12.2K

Total Vol

$55.7K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 466 resolved trades (Beta(220, 256))

Cumulative Realized P&L

475 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 475 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -30.5%

Yes14W / 46L

23.3%

60 resolved positions

No14W / 12L

53.8%

26 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (475)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 475

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-07-12?	BUYYES	120.5	$36.14	0.300	−$36	Jul 13
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	BUYUP	1,922.9	$954.65	0.496	−$955	Jul 13
Ethereum Up or Down - July 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUYDOWN	21.9	$7.47	0.340	−$7	Jul 13
Spread: Dallas Wings (-9.5)	BUYDALLAS WINGS	36.6	$19.04	0.520	−$16	Jul 13
BNB Up or Down - July 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUYUP	14.2	$4.67	0.328	−$5	Jul 13
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 11?	BUYYES	64.1	$34.55	0.539	+$28	Jul 13
Ethereum Up or Down - July 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	BUYDOWN	679.3	$563.33	0.829	+$30	Jul 13
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUYUP	1,171.8	$140.01	0.119	−$140	Jul 13
Valorant: BESTIA vs KRÜ Spark (BO5) - VCL Latin America South: Playoffs	BUYBESTIA	698.3	$530.61	0.760	−$64	Jul 13
BNB Up or Down - July 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUYDOWN	22.1	$14.01	0.633	+$8	Jul 13

Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-07-12?

BUYYES−$36

Shares120.5

Total Traded$36.14

Avg Price0.300

ClosedJul 13

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET

BUYUP−$955

Shares1,922.9

Total Traded$954.65

Avg Price0.496

ClosedJul 13

Ethereum Up or Down - July 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET

BUYDOWN−$7

Shares21.9

Total Traded$7.47

Avg Price0.340

ClosedJul 13

Spread: Dallas Wings (-9.5)

BUYDALLAS WINGS−$16

Shares36.6

Total Traded$19.04

Avg Price0.520

ClosedJul 13

BNB Up or Down - July 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET

BUYUP−$5

Shares14.2

Total Traded$4.67

Avg Price0.328

ClosedJul 13

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 11?

BUYYES+$28

Shares64.1

Total Traded$34.55

Avg Price0.539

ClosedJul 13

Ethereum Up or Down - July 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET

BUYDOWN+$30

Shares679.3

Total Traded$563.33

Avg Price0.829

ClosedJul 13

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET

BUYUP−$140

Shares1,171.8

Total Traded$140.01

Avg Price0.119

ClosedJul 13

Valorant: BESTIA vs KRÜ Spark (BO5) - VCL Latin America South: Playoffs

BUYBESTIA−$64

Shares698.3

Total Traded$530.61

Avg Price0.760

ClosedJul 13

BNB Up or Down - July 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET

BUYDOWN+$8

Shares22.1

Total Traded$14.01

Avg Price0.633

ClosedJul 13

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

$541

Win / Loss

9W / 11L

Win Rate

45.0%

Avg Return

-27.0%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-07-12?Jul 13, 2026 @ 30.0¢BUYYES333.330.0¢$100$100-100.0%

2Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ETJul 13, 2026 @ 49.6¢BUYUP201.449.6¢$100$100-100.0%

3Ethereum Up or Down - July 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ETJul 13, 2026 @ 34.0¢BUYDOWN293.834.0¢$100$100-100.0%

4Spread: Dallas Wings (-9.5)Jul 13, 2026 @ 52.0¢BUYDALLAS WINGS192.352.0¢$100$100-100.0%

5BNB Up or Down - July 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ETJul 13, 2026 @ 32.8¢BUYUP304.732.8¢$100$100-100.0%

#1Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-07-12?

Jul 13, 2026 @ 30.0¢

$100

BUYYES-100.0%

#2Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET

Jul 13, 2026 @ 49.6¢

$100

BUYUP-100.0%

#3Ethereum Up or Down - July 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET

Jul 13, 2026 @ 34.0¢

$100

BUYDOWN-100.0%

#4Spread: Dallas Wings (-9.5)

Jul 13, 2026 @ 52.0¢

$100

BUYDALLAS WINGS-100.0%

#5BNB Up or Down - July 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET

Jul 13, 2026 @ 32.8¢

$100

BUYUP-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.