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BreakTheBank

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsfifwc-bra-jpn-2026-06-29
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$2.7M net loss from $40.3M of volume, with a 39.2% win rate across 222 trades, a 39% skill score, and a -6.8% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
39%
Confidence
0.1%
Share on X

Win Rate

39.2%

Trades

222

Net P&L

−$2.7M

Total Vol

$40.3M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 222 resolved trades (Beta(86, 133))

Cumulative Realized P&L

222 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 222 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -17.8%

Yes19W / 40L
32.2%

59 resolved positions

No30W / 30L
50.0%

60 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (222)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 222

Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Zverev (+2.5)
BUYZVEREV+$1.3K
Shares2,968.7
Total Traded$1,692.17
Avg Price0.570
ClosedJul 12
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
BUYNO−$132.5K
Shares1,430,646.1
Total Traded$1,101,596.03
Avg Price0.770
ClosedJul 12
Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Zverev (+2.5)
BUYSINNER−$1.3K
Shares3,360.4
Total Traded$1,276.96
Avg Price0.380
ClosedJul 12
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+$359.5K
Shares1,258,796.6
Total Traded$899,275.50
Avg Price0.714
ClosedJul 12
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?
BUYYES+$258.0K
Shares1,476,093.3
Total Traded$481,833.75
Avg Price0.326
ClosedJul 12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYENGLAND+$29.5K
Shares81,829.5
Total Traded$52,370.89
Avg Price0.640
ClosedJul 12
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
BUYSAN DIEGO PADRES+$35.2K
Shares64,082.0
Total Traded$28,836.89
Avg Price0.450
ClosedJul 12
Spread: England (-5.5)
BUYENGLAND−$1
Shares712.2
Total Traded$0.71
Avg Price0.001
ClosedJul 11
Spread: England (-3.5)
BUYENGLAND−$13.5K
Shares449,627.1
Total Traded$13,466.33
Avg Price0.030
ClosedJul 11
Will England win on 2026-07-11?
BUYYES−$373.5K
Shares1,120,454.5
Total Traded$373,484.45
Avg Price0.333
ClosedJul 11

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$879

Win / Loss

6W / 14L

Win Rate

30.0%

Avg Return

-43.9%

1–5 of 20

#1Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Zverev (+2.5)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 57.0¢
+$75
BUYZVEREV+75.4%
#2Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 77.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#3Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Zverev (+2.5)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 38.0¢
$100
BUYSINNER-100.0%
#4UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 71.4¢
+$40
BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+40.0%
#5Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 32.6¢
+$206
BUYYES+206.3%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.