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TimeTraveler

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sports2026-nba-champion
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$29K net loss from $95K of volume, with a 44.4% win rate across 205 trades, a 44% skill score, and a -30.8% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
44%
Confidence
4.7%
Share on X

Win Rate

44.4%

Trades

205

Net P&L

−$29.3K

Total Vol

$95.2K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 205 resolved trades (Beta(90, 113))

Cumulative Realized P&L

205 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 205 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -29.7%

Yes34W / 80L
29.8%

114 resolved positions

No50W / 34L
59.5%

84 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (205)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 205

Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$886
Shares3,055.9
Total Traded$886.23
Avg Price0.290
ClosedJul 13
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$1.2K
Shares7,571.5
Total Traded$1,172.84
Avg Price0.155
ClosedJul 13
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$381
Shares3,399.9
Total Traded$830.94
Avg Price0.244
ClosedJul 12
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$43
Shares200.0
Total Traded$156.99
Avg Price0.785
ClosedJul 12
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$15
Shares239.8
Total Traded$156.42
Avg Price0.652
ClosedJul 12
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?
BUYNO+$331
Shares747.0
Total Traded$416.45
Avg Price0.557
ClosedJul 12
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$1.3K
Shares3,882.6
Total Traded$226.16
Avg Price0.058
ClosedJul 12
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
BUYYES+$117
Shares16,148.7
Total Traded$618.57
Avg Price0.038
ClosedJul 12
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$125
Shares1,450.0
Total Traded$125.00
Avg Price0.086
ClosedJul 12
Will Jordan Pickford record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$33
Shares131.7
Total Traded$98.52
Avg Price0.748
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$9,314

Win / Loss

14W / 6L

Win Rate

70.0%

Avg Return

+465.7%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 29.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#2Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 15.5¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#3Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 24.4¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#4Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 78.5¢
+$27
BUYNO+27.4%
#5Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 65.2¢
+$53
BUYNO+53.3%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.