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sainta...twin

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

Low Hit Rate, Heavy Payoffs

$44K net profit from $445K of volume, with a 34.2% win rate across 202 trades, a 35% skill score, and a 9.9% return on volume.

Profit depends more on payoff size than win frequency, so drawdowns may be uneven.

Skill
35%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

34.2%

Trades

202

Net P&L

+$44.3K

Total Vol

$444.8K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 202 resolved trades (Beta(69, 130))

Cumulative Realized P&L

202 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 202 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -9.3%

Yes24W / 35L
40.7%

59 resolved positions

No2W / 2L
50.0%

4 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (202)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 202

BUYYES$11.7K
Shares51,488.8
Total Traded$11,701.29
Avg Price0.227
ClosedJul 13
BUYOVER$1.2K
Shares5,555.0
Total Traded$1,222.10
Avg Price0.220
ClosedJul 12
BUYOVER$2.3K
Shares5,555.0
Total Traded$2,333.10
Avg Price0.420
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$17
Shares116.0
Total Traded$16.57
Avg Price0.143
ClosedJul 12
BUYARGENTINA$2.7K
Shares8,887.9
Total Traded$2,699.70
Avg Price0.304
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES+$17.4K
Shares25,564.8
Total Traded$8,106.47
Avg Price0.317
ClosedJul 12
BUYOVER$2.3K
Shares11,111.0
Total Traded$2,333.31
Avg Price0.210
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$8.3K
Shares14,443.0
Total Traded$8,299.16
Avg Price0.575
ClosedJul 12
BUYBILIBILI GAMING$3.2K
Shares6,666.0
Total Traded$3,223.10
Avg Price0.484
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO+$2.9K
Shares5,555.0
Total Traded$2,596.96
Avg Price0.468
ClosedJul 11

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$466

Win / Loss

9W / 11L

Win Rate

45.0%

Avg Return

+23.3%

15 of 20

#1Will T1 win MSI 2026?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 22.7¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5
Jul 12, 2026 @ 22.0¢
$100
BUYOVER-100.0%
#3Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5
Jul 12, 2026 @ 42.0¢
$100
BUYOVER-100.0%
#4Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win MSI 2026?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 14.3¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Spread: Argentina (-1.5)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 30.4¢
$100
BUYARGENTINA-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.