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Last updated Jul 14, 02:02 PM

Top activity:sports fifwc-arg-che-2026-07-11-more-markets

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$47K net loss from $2.5M of volume, with a 37.4% win rate across 257 trades, a 37% skill score, and a -1.9% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill: 37%
Confidence: 0%

Share on X

Win Rate

37.4%

Trades

257

Net P&L

−$47.5K

Total Vol

$2.5M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 257 resolved trades (Beta(100, 167))

Cumulative Realized P&L

257 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 257 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +34.1%

Yes26W / 18L

59.1%

44 resolved positions

No11W / 33L

25.0%

44 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (257)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 257

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5	BUYOVER	1,929.3	$101.85	0.053	−$102	Jul 14
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUYUNDER	12,775.3	$6,934.52	0.543	+$780	Jul 14
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUYMOROCCO	677.8	$191.89	0.283	+$192	Jul 14
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUYNO	66,019.1	$63,622.77	0.964	−$26.8K	Jul 14
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	BUYARGENTINA	1,231.8	$147.38	0.120	+$469	Jul 14
Spain vs. Austria: O/U 3.5	BUYUNDER	1,178.0	$940.41	0.798	−$351	Jul 14
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUYUNDER	1,501.1	$885.20	0.590	+$24	Jul 14
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5	BUYOVER	50.0	$2.95	0.059	−$3	Jul 14
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUYYES	122,872.8	$33,720.72	0.274	−$15.4K	Jul 14
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 1.5	BUYUNDER	3,079.7	$105.51	0.034	+$1.2K	Jul 14

South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5

BUYOVER−$102

Shares1,929.3

Total Traded$101.85

Avg Price0.053

ClosedJul 14

France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5

BUYUNDER+$780

Shares12,775.3

Total Traded$6,934.52

Avg Price0.543

ClosedJul 14

Spread: Morocco (-1.5)

BUYMOROCCO+$192

Shares677.8

Total Traded$191.89

Avg Price0.283

ClosedJul 14

Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?

BUYNO−$26.8K

Shares66,019.1

Total Traded$63,622.77

Avg Price0.964

ClosedJul 14

Spread: Argentina (-2.5)

BUYARGENTINA+$469

Shares1,231.8

Total Traded$147.38

Avg Price0.120

ClosedJul 14

Spain vs. Austria: O/U 3.5

BUYUNDER−$351

Shares1,178.0

Total Traded$940.41

Avg Price0.798

ClosedJul 14

Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 2.5

BUYUNDER+$24

Shares1,501.1

Total Traded$885.20

Avg Price0.590

ClosedJul 14

Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5

BUYOVER−$3

Shares50.0

Total Traded$2.95

Avg Price0.059

ClosedJul 14

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?

BUYYES−$15.4K

Shares122,872.8

Total Traded$33,720.72

Avg Price0.274

ClosedJul 14

Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 1.5

BUYUNDER+$1.2K

Shares3,079.7

Total Traded$105.51

Avg Price0.034

ClosedJul 14

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$3,563

Win / Loss

9W / 11L

Win Rate

45.0%

Avg Return

+178.2%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5Jul 14, 2026 @ 5.3¢BUYOVER1,894.15.3¢$100$100-100.0%

2France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Jul 14, 2026 @ 54.3¢BUYUNDER184.254.3¢$100+$84+84.2%

3Spread: Morocco (-1.5)Jul 14, 2026 @ 28.3¢BUYMOROCCO353.228.3¢$100+$253+253.2%

4Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?Jul 14, 2026 @ 96.4¢BUYNO103.896.4¢$100$100-100.0%

5Spread: Argentina (-2.5)Jul 14, 2026 @ 12.0¢BUYARGENTINA835.812.0¢$100+$736+735.8%

#1South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5

Jul 14, 2026 @ 5.3¢

$100

BUYOVER-100.0%

#2France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5

Jul 14, 2026 @ 54.3¢

+$84

BUYUNDER+84.2%

#3Spread: Morocco (-1.5)

Jul 14, 2026 @ 28.3¢

+$253

BUYMOROCCO+253.2%

#4Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?

Jul 14, 2026 @ 96.4¢

$100

BUYNO-100.0%

#5Spread: Argentina (-2.5)

Jul 14, 2026 @ 12.0¢

+$736

BUYARGENTINA+735.8%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.