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Joe-Biden

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politicsrussia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

Low Hit Rate, Heavy Payoffs

$368K net profit from $6M of volume, with a 33.7% win rate across 199 trades, a 38% skill score, and a 6.1% return on volume.

Profit depends more on payoff size than win frequency, so drawdowns may be uneven.

Skill
38%
Confidence
0.5%
Share on X

Win Rate

33.7%

Trades

199

Net P&L

+$368.5K

Total Vol

$6.0M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 199 resolved trades (Beta(41, 68))

Cumulative Realized P&L

199 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 199 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -1.1%

Yes31W / 68L
31.3%

99 resolved positions

No24W / 50L
32.4%

74 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (199)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 199

Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Switzerland?
BUYYES−$6.5K
Shares49,999.8
Total Traded$6,499.97
Avg Price0.130
ClosedJul 12
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Switzerland?
BUYYES−$7.0K
Shares70,305.6
Total Traded$7,030.56
Avg Price0.100
ClosedJul 12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYNORWAY−$63.0K
Shares299,999.5
Total Traded$62,978.29
Avg Price0.210
ClosedJul 11
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Belgium?
BUYYES−$570
Shares4,072.5
Total Traded$570.16
Avg Price0.140
ClosedJul 10
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
BUYMOROCCO−$33.7K
Shares150,000.0
Total Traded$33,750.00
Avg Price0.225
ClosedJul 9
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
BUYUNITED STATES−$40.5K
Shares75,000.0
Total Traded$40,500.00
Avg Price0.540
ClosedJul 7
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?
BUYNO−$49.5K
Shares75,000.0
Total Traded$49,500.00
Avg Price0.660
ClosedJul 7
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?
BUYYES−$61.5K
Shares150,000.0
Total Traded$61,500.00
Avg Price0.410
ClosedJul 7
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance
BUYCOLOMBIA−$30.0K
Shares55,036.3
Total Traded$30,019.13
Avg Price0.545
ClosedJul 7
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Colombia?
BUYYES+$46.6K
Shares70,251.3
Total Traded$23,637.61
Avg Price0.336
ClosedJul 7

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$240

Win / Loss

5W / 15L

Win Rate

25.0%

Avg Return

-12.0%

1–5 of 20

#1Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Switzerland?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 13.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Switzerland?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 10.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 11, 2026 @ 21.0¢
$100
BUYNORWAY-100.0%
#4Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Belgium?
Jul 10, 2026 @ 14.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
Jul 9, 2026 @ 22.5¢
$100
BUYMOROCCO-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.