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afkpnlucl

Last updated Jul 16, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsworld-cup-winner
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$277K net profit from $4.6M of volume, with a 42.3% win rate across 111 trades, a 42% skill score, and a 6.0% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
42%
Confidence
4.6%
Share on X

Win Rate

42.3%

Trades

111

Net P&L

+$276.8K

Total Vol

$4.6M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 111 resolved trades (Beta(44, 61))

Cumulative Realized P&L

111 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 111 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -59.8%

Yes20W / 51L
28.2%

71 resolved positions

No22W / 3L
88.0%

25 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (111)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 111

Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
BUYNO+$4.5K
Shares9,364.0
Total Traded$4,682.00
Avg Price0.500
ClosedJul 13
Will Lille win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
BUYYES−$195
Shares9,364.0
Total Traded$222.95
Avg Price0.024
ClosedJul 13
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
BUYYES+$1
Shares20.8
Total Traded$20.00
Avg Price0.963
ClosedJul 6
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals
BUYYES−$57
Shares166.5
Total Traded$56.60
Avg Price0.340
ClosedJul 6
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026?
BUYNO+$9
Shares50.0
Total Traded$41.50
Avg Price0.830
ClosedJul 1
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?
BUYNO+$0
Shares22.2
Total Traded$22.00
Avg Price0.993
ClosedJul 1
Will Tyrrell Hatton leave LIV Golf by June 30th?
BUYYES−$1
Shares1.0
Total Traded$1.00
Avg Price0.980
ClosedJun 30
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
BUYYES−$7
Shares100.0
Total Traded$7.00
Avg Price0.070
ClosedJun 30
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
BUYYES−$4
Shares933.4
Total Traded$4.00
Avg Price0.004
ClosedJun 30
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
BUYYES+$6
Shares106.4
Total Traded$100.00
Avg Price0.940
ClosedJun 30

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$1,545

Win / Loss

7W / 13L

Win Rate

35.0%

Avg Return

+77.3%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 50.0¢
+$100
BUYNO+100.0%
#2Will Lille win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 2.4¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Jul 6, 2026 @ 96.3¢
+$4
BUYYES+3.8%
#4Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals
Jul 6, 2026 @ 34.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Jul 1, 2026 @ 83.0¢
+$20
BUYNO+20.5%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.