Pol.1
Last updated Jul 16, 03:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
A Lot of Motion, Not Much Progress
$11K net profit from $3.9M of volume, with a 44.2% win rate across 197 trades, a 44% skill score, and a 0.3% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 44%
- Confidence
- 4%
Win Rate
44.2%
Trades
197
Net P&L
+$11.1K
Total Vol
$3.9M
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 197 resolved trades (Beta(82, 106))
Cumulative Realized P&L
197 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 197 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: +0.3%
100 resolved positions
96 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (197)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 197
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$4,160
Win / Loss
6W / 14L
Win Rate
30.0%
Avg Return
+208.0%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.