99problems123
Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$171K net loss from $1.4M of volume, with a 41.5% win rate across 207 trades, a 41% skill score, and a -12.5% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 41%
- Confidence
- 1%
Win Rate
41.5%
Trades
207
Net P&L
−$170.6K
Total Vol
$1.4M
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 207 resolved trades (Beta(72, 103))
Cumulative Realized P&L
207 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 207 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -24.7%
126 resolved positions
78 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (207)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 207
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
$1,346
Win / Loss
4W / 16L
Win Rate
20.0%
Avg Return
-67.3%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.