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0x440a...3240

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$74K net loss from $232K of volume, with a 31.4% win rate across 35 trades, a 33% skill score, and a -32.1% return on volume.

The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.

Skill
33%
Confidence
2.2%
Share on X

Win Rate

31.4%

Trades

35

Medium Sample

Net P&L

−$74.4K

Total Vol

$232.0K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 35 resolved trades (Beta(12, 24))

Cumulative Realized P&L

35 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 35 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -20.6%

Yes5W / 12L
29.4%

17 resolved positions

No1W / 1L
50.0%

2 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (35)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 35

BUYNORWAY$35.0K
Shares83,333.3
Total Traded$34,999.92
Avg Price0.420
ClosedJul 11
BUYYES$30.0K
Shares128,819.2
Total Traded$29,999.93
Avg Price0.233
ClosedJul 11
BUYARGENTINA+$14.6K
Shares24,610.3
Total Traded$9,961.05
Avg Price0.405
ClosedJul 7
BUYYES$4.9K
Shares101,453.2
Total Traded$4,881.01
Avg Price0.048
ClosedJul 5
BUYYES$9.8K
Shares32,618.5
Total Traded$9,785.55
Avg Price0.300
ClosedJul 1
BUYYES$9.9K
Shares33,304.6
Total Traded$9,858.93
Avg Price0.296
ClosedJun 24
BUYYES+$5.6K
Shares15,033.7
Total Traded$9,394.63
Avg Price0.625
ClosedMay 30
BUYYES$24.0K
Shares67,280.7
Total Traded$23,999.96
Avg Price0.357
ClosedMay 24
BUYYES+$22.7K
Shares30,332.5
Total Traded$7,639.56
Avg Price0.252
ClosedMay 23
BUYDOWN$1,000
Shares1,650.4
Total Traded$1,000.00
Avg Price0.606
ClosedMay 23

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$272

Win / Loss

8W / 12L

Win Rate

40.0%

Avg Return

-13.6%

15 of 20

#1Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 11, 2026 @ 42.0¢
$100
BUYNORWAY-100.0%
#2Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 11, 2026 @ 23.3¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance
Jul 7, 2026 @ 40.5¢
+$147
BUYARGENTINA+147.1%
#4Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?
Jul 5, 2026 @ 4.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?
Jul 1, 2026 @ 30.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.