mantre
Last updated Jul 16, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$9K net loss from $304K of volume, with a 42.6% win rate across 202 trades, a 41% skill score, and a -2.8% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 41%
- Confidence
- 1.4%
Win Rate
42.6%
Trades
202
Net P&L
−$8.5K
Total Vol
$303.7K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 202 resolved trades (Beta(68, 96))
Cumulative Realized P&L
202 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 202 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -35.9%
58 resolved positions
24 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (202)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 202
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
$927
Win / Loss
5W / 15L
Win Rate
25.0%
Avg Return
-46.3%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.