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0x2a2C...5461

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$80K net loss from $6.6M of volume, with a 43.5% win rate across 200 trades, a 43% skill score, and a -1.2% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
43%
Confidence
3.7%
Share on X

Win Rate

43.5%

Trades

200

Net P&L

−$80.0K

Total Vol

$6.6M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 200 resolved trades (Beta(68, 91))

Cumulative Realized P&L

200 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 200 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -18.4%

Yes9W / 12L
42.9%

21 resolved positions

No19W / 12L
61.3%

31 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (200)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 200

BUYYES$16.4K
Shares564,099.6
Total Traded$16,358.89
Avg Price0.029
ClosedJul 1
BUYYES$24
Shares24,019.2
Total Traded$24.02
Avg Price0.001
ClosedJul 1
BUYNO$38.6K
Shares44,618.4
Total Traded$38,597.89
Avg Price0.865
ClosedJul 1
BUYYES$6
Shares982.2
Total Traded$5.89
Avg Price0.006
ClosedJun 30
BUYNO+$514
Shares4,485.8
Total Traded$3,971.57
Avg Price0.885
ClosedJun 14
BUYYES+$202.7K
Shares455,555.0
Total Traded$7,592.28
Avg Price0.017
ClosedJun 8
BUYYES+$33.0K
Shares455,555.0
Total Traded$7,592.28
Avg Price0.017
ClosedJun 5
BUYYES$318
Shares2,698.0
Total Traded$318.36
Avg Price0.118
ClosedMay 31
BUYNO+$59.7K
Shares127,753.0
Total Traded$45,713.46
Avg Price0.358
ClosedMay 31
BUYYES$447
Shares44,675.8
Total Traded$22,784.66
Avg Price0.510
ClosedMay 31

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$10,534

Win / Loss

5W / 15L

Win Rate

25.0%

Avg Return

+526.7%

15 of 20

#1Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Jul 1, 2026 @ 2.9¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Jul 1, 2026 @ 0.1¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Jul 1, 2026 @ 86.5¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#4Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
Jun 30, 2026 @ 0.6¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Jun 14, 2026 @ 88.5¢
+$13
BUYNO+12.9%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.