Skip to main content
Back to Leaderboard

Gucky-45

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

Low Hit Rate, Heavy Payoffs

$471K net profit from $724K of volume, with a 33.2% win rate across 205 trades, a 33% skill score, and a 65.1% return on volume.

Profit depends more on payoff size than win frequency, so drawdowns may be uneven.

Skill
33%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

33.2%

Trades

205

Net P&L

+$471.3K

Total Vol

$723.9K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 205 resolved trades (Beta(70, 140))

Cumulative Realized P&L

205 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 205 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -58.3%

Yes60W / 136L
30.6%

196 resolved positions

No8W / 1L
88.9%

9 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (205)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 205

BUYYES$127
Shares9,000.0
Total Traded$249.99
Avg Price0.028
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$169
Shares9,000.0
Total Traded$249.99
Avg Price0.028
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES+$2.5K
Shares49,763.3
Total Traded$2,927.23
Avg Price0.059
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$239
Shares15,990.2
Total Traded$238.65
Avg Price0.015
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$241
Shares16,160.3
Total Traded$241.19
Avg Price0.015
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$152
Shares10,160.3
Total Traded$151.64
Avg Price0.015
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$167
Shares11,160.3
Total Traded$166.57
Avg Price0.015
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$239
Shares16,009.2
Total Traded$238.94
Avg Price0.015
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$241
Shares16,160.3
Total Traded$241.19
Avg Price0.015
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$3
Shares250.0
Total Traded$3.38
Avg Price0.014
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$3,300

Win / Loss

2W / 18L

Win Rate

10.0%

Avg Return

+165.0%

15 of 20

#1Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 2.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 2.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 5.9¢
+$1,600
BUYYES+1600.0%
#4Will Francisco Cerúndolo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 1.5¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Nicolás Jarry be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 1.5¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.