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c0O0OLI0O03

Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM

Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$45K net profit from $256K of volume, with a 100.0% win rate across 31 trades, a 79% skill score, and a 17.8% return on volume.

The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.

Skill
79%
Confidence
>99.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

100.0%

Trades

31

Medium Sample

Net P&L

+$45.5K

Total Vol

$255.9K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 31 resolved trades (Beta(23, 6))

Cumulative Realized P&L

31 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 31 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Yes31W / 0L
100.0%

31 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (31)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 31

BUYYES+$250
Shares52,171.6
Total Traded$260.86
Avg Price0.005
ClosedJul 16
BUYYES+$2.7K
Shares8,770,384.6
Total Traded$8,770.38
Avg Price0.001
ClosedJul 2
BUYYES+$8.2K
Shares14,028,368.2
Total Traded$28,056.74
Avg Price0.002
ClosedJun 30
BUYYES+$2.4K
Shares14,863,122.5
Total Traded$14,863.12
Avg Price0.001
ClosedJun 30
BUYYES+$274
Shares4,774,641.6
Total Traded$9,549.28
Avg Price0.002
ClosedJun 28
BUYYES+$5.8K
Shares2,869,679.5
Total Traded$31,566.47
Avg Price0.011
ClosedJun 26
BUYYES+$10.0K
Shares20,022,804.8
Total Traded$40,045.61
Avg Price0.002
ClosedJun 25
BUYYES+$510
Shares533,548.0
Total Traded$1,600.64
Avg Price0.003
ClosedJun 24
BUYYES+$934
Shares1,081,838.5
Total Traded$7,572.87
Avg Price0.007
ClosedMay 19
BUYYES+$2.3K
Shares2,278,862.2
Total Traded$2,278.86
Avg Price0.001
ClosedMay 1

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$700,341

Win / Loss

20W / 0L

Win Rate

100.0%

Avg Return

+35017.0%

15 of 20

#1Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 16, 2026 @ 0.5¢
+$19,900
BUYYES+19900.0%
#2Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 2, 2026 @ 0.1¢
+$99,900
BUYYES+99900.0%
#3Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 30, 2026 @ 0.2¢
+$49,900
BUYYES+49900.0%
#4Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 30, 2026 @ 0.1¢
+$99,900
BUYYES+99900.0%
#5Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 28, 2026 @ 0.2¢
+$49,900
BUYYES+49900.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.