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ndb1

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politicsbalance-of-power-2026-midterms
Skilled

Wallet Verdict

High-Volume Winner

$884K net profit from $30.7M of volume, with a 75.6% win rate across 230 trades, a 74% skill score, and a 2.9% return on volume.

The results are substantial; only the repeatability of the edge remains under review.

Skill
74%
Confidence
>99.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

75.6%

Trades

230

Net P&L

+$884.2K

Total Vol

$30.7M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 230 resolved trades (Beta(170, 59))

Cumulative Realized P&L

230 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 230 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -15.2%

Yes40W / 20L
66.7%

60 resolved positions

No117W / 26L
81.8%

143 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (230)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 230

Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$6.9K
Shares20,179.5
Total Traded$6,935.78
Avg Price0.344
ClosedJul 12
Will Justin Jefferson win the 2026 NFL MVP?
BUYNO+$62
Shares1,103.1
Total Traded$1,037.48
Avg Price0.940
ClosedJul 12
Will the final be FRA vs NOR at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$364
Shares3,621.7
Total Traded$3,257.21
Avg Price0.899
ClosedJul 12
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score
BUYNO−$30.5K
Shares78,117.6
Total Traded$30,465.85
Avg Price0.390
ClosedJul 12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYENGLAND+$9.8K
Shares562,287.7
Total Traded$362,675.55
Avg Price0.645
ClosedJul 12
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$1
Shares13.2
Total Traded$8.16
Avg Price0.620
ClosedJul 12
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 England?
BUYNO+$2.8K
Shares112,456.6
Total Traded$109,643.64
Avg Price0.975
ClosedJul 12
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$4.1K
Shares11,559.0
Total Traded$7,423.89
Avg Price0.642
ClosedJul 12
Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?
BUYNO+$928
Shares2,578.6
Total Traded$1,650.28
Avg Price0.640
ClosedJul 12
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?
BUYYES−$13.0K
Shares163,231.1
Total Traded$34,335.17
Avg Price0.210
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$382

Win / Loss

14W / 6L

Win Rate

70.0%

Avg Return

+19.1%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 34.4¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#2Will Justin Jefferson win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 94.0¢
+$6
BUYNO+6.3%
#3Will the final be FRA vs NOR at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 89.9¢
+$11
BUYNO+11.2%
#4Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score
Jul 12, 2026 @ 39.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#5Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 64.5¢
+$55
BUYENGLAND+55.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.