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lovedudley

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Edge

Wallet Verdict

A Lot of Motion, Not Much Progress

$21K net profit from $3.4M of volume, with a 66.7% win rate across 36 trades, a 61% skill score, and a 0.6% return on volume.

The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.

Skill
61%
Confidence
91.8%
Share on X

Win Rate

66.7%

Trades

36

Medium Sample

Net P&L

+$20.6K

Total Vol

$3.4M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 36 resolved trades (Beta(26, 17))

Cumulative Realized P&L

36 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 36 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -22.7%

Yes2W / 2L
50.0%

4 resolved positions

No16W / 6L
72.7%

22 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (36)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 36

BUYSWITZERLAND$150
Shares19,999.9
Total Traded$5,249.98
Avg Price0.263
ClosedJul 12
BUYENGLAND+$11.7K
Shares47,000.0
Total Traded$30,314.98
Avg Price0.645
ClosedJul 12
BUYNORWAY+$673
Shares44,838.3
Total Traded$15,245.04
Avg Price0.340
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES+$844
Shares3,376.2
Total Traded$2,532.12
Avg Price0.750
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO+$135.7K
Shares541,856.4
Total Traded$509,615.37
Avg Price0.940
ClosedJul 12
BUYARGENTINA+$19.6K
Shares80,000.0
Total Traded$60,400.00
Avg Price0.755
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$108.2K
Shares1,422,000.0
Total Traded$502,570.35
Avg Price0.353
ClosedJul 12
BUYBELGIUM$10.4K
Shares40,000.0
Total Traded$10,350.00
Avg Price0.259
ClosedJul 10
BUYMOROCCO$9.0K
Shares39,999.6
Total Traded$8,999.90
Avg Price0.225
ClosedJul 9
BUYNO$37.4K
Shares139,994.5
Total Traded$69,997.25
Avg Price0.500
ClosedJul 9

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$131

Win / Loss

13W / 7L

Win Rate

65.0%

Avg Return

+6.6%

15 of 20

#1Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 26.3¢
$100
BUYSWITZERLAND-100.0%
#2Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 64.5¢
+$55
BUYENGLAND+55.0%
#3Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 34.0¢
+$194
BUYNORWAY+194.1%
#4Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 75.0¢
+$33
BUYYES+33.3%
#5Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 94.0¢
+$6
BUYNO+6.3%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.