KKchallenge
Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM
Wallet Verdict
A Lot of Motion, Not Much Progress
$4K net loss from $2.5M of volume, with a 54.0% win rate across 37 trades, a 51% skill score, and a -0.2% return on volume.
The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.
- Skill
- 51%
- Confidence
- 56.7%
Win Rate
54.0%
Trades
37
Medium Sample
Net P&L
−$4.5K
Total Vol
$2.5M
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 37 resolved trades (Beta(23, 22))
Cumulative Realized P&L
37 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 37 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: +18.3%
25 resolved positions
12 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (37)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 37
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$286,163
Win / Loss
13W / 7L
Win Rate
65.0%
Avg Return
+14308.1%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.