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Nooserac

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$487K net loss from $1M of volume, with a 31.1% win rate across 222 trades, a 32% skill score, and a -46.9% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
32%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

31.1%

Trades

222

Net P&L

−$487.1K

Total Vol

$1.0M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 222 resolved trades (Beta(72, 157))

Cumulative Realized P&L

222 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 222 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -8.6%

Yes18W / 36L
33.3%

54 resolved positions

No31W / 43L
41.9%

74 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (222)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 222

BUYNO$13.2K
Shares52,532.9
Total Traded$13,181.70
Avg Price0.251
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$50
Shares553.1
Total Traded$49.78
Avg Price0.090
ClosedJul 13
BUYNO$12.0K
Shares19,157.0
Total Traded$11,953.91
Avg Price0.624
ClosedJul 13
BUYNO$12.4K
Shares24,470.1
Total Traded$12,410.77
Avg Price0.507
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES+$141
Shares411.0
Total Traded$62.98
Avg Price0.153
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$4.1K
Shares15,602.3
Total Traded$4,059.29
Avg Price0.260
ClosedJul 13
BUYNO$2.4K
Shares7,306.7
Total Traded$2,366.32
Avg Price0.324
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$4.2K
Shares20,000.0
Total Traded$4,237.47
Avg Price0.212
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$1.3K
Shares33,239.7
Total Traded$1,345.74
Avg Price0.040
ClosedJul 13
BUYNO$20
Shares465.5
Total Traded$280.53
Avg Price0.603
ClosedJul 13

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$13

Win / Loss

9W / 11L

Win Rate

45.0%

Avg Return

+0.6%

15 of 20

#1Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 25.1¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#2Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 9.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 62.4¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#4Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 50.7¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#5Will Shopify Rebellion Black Win North America ACE Stage 3
Jul 13, 2026 @ 15.3¢
+$553
BUYYES+552.6%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.