Nooserac
Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$487K net loss from $1M of volume, with a 31.1% win rate across 222 trades, a 32% skill score, and a -46.9% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 32%
- Confidence
- 0%
Win Rate
31.1%
Trades
222
Net P&L
−$487.1K
Total Vol
$1.0M
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 222 resolved trades (Beta(72, 157))
Cumulative Realized P&L
222 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 222 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -8.6%
54 resolved positions
74 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (222)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 222
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$13
Win / Loss
9W / 11L
Win Rate
45.0%
Avg Return
+0.6%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.