madd1s0n
Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$2 net loss from $10K of volume, with a 62.5% win rate across 8 trades, a 48% skill score, and a -0.0% return on volume.
Only 8 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.
- Skill
- 48%
- Confidence
- 42.6%
Win Rate
62.5%
Trades
8
Small Sample
Net P&L
−$2
Total Vol
$10.3K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 8 resolved trades (Beta(7, 8))
Cumulative Realized P&L
8 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 8 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -16.7%
2 resolved positions
6 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (8)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–8 of 8
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$236
Win / Loss
5W / 3L
Win Rate
62.5%
Avg Return
+29.5%
1–5 of 8
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 8 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.