Skip to main content
Back to Leaderboard

pirate...1313

Last updated Jul 15, 03:02 PM

Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$304K net profit from $1.5M of volume, with a 49.0% win rate across 196 trades, a 48% skill score, and a 20.1% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
48%
Confidence
33.4%
Share on X

Win Rate

49.0%

Trades

196

Net P&L

+$303.6K

Total Vol

$1.5M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 196 resolved trades (Beta(62, 66))

Cumulative Realized P&L

196 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 196 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -52.4%

Yes34W / 76L
30.9%

110 resolved positions

No45W / 9L
83.3%

54 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (196)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 196

BUYYES$51
Shares426.6
Total Traded$51.19
Avg Price0.120
ClosedJul 14
BUYNO+$3.2K
Shares19,450.2
Total Traded$16,281.98
Avg Price0.837
ClosedJul 14
BUYYES$9.3K
Shares14,131.0
Total Traded$9,250.21
Avg Price0.655
ClosedJul 14
BUYNO+$3.2K
Shares24,444.0
Total Traded$21,266.27
Avg Price0.870
ClosedJul 14
BUYNO+$7.6K
Shares48,374.5
Total Traded$40,745.07
Avg Price0.842
ClosedJul 14
BUYYES$110
Shares580.1
Total Traded$110.22
Avg Price0.190
ClosedJul 14
BUYNO+$3.9K
Shares41,002.1
Total Traded$37,091.84
Avg Price0.905
ClosedJul 14
BUYNO+$5.4K
Shares23,259.0
Total Traded$17,895.03
Avg Price0.769
ClosedJul 14
BUYNO+$3.9K
Shares16,666.0
Total Traded$12,777.22
Avg Price0.767
ClosedJul 14
BUYFRANCE$22.4K
Shares40,000.0
Total Traded$22,400.00
Avg Price0.560
ClosedJul 14

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$881

Win / Loss

8W / 12L

Win Rate

40.0%

Avg Return

-44.1%

15 of 20

#1Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 12.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will Willson Contreras win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 83.7¢
+$19
BUYNO+19.5%
#3France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score
Jul 14, 2026 @ 65.5¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Jac Caglianone win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 87.0¢
+$15
BUYNO+14.9%
#5Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 84.2¢
+$19
BUYNO+18.7%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.