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gopfan2

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politicspresidential-election-winner-2028
Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$144K net profit from $5.3M of volume, with a 46.2% win rate across 199 trades, a 46% skill score, and a 2.7% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
46%
Confidence
15.8%
Share on X

Win Rate

46.2%

Trades

199

Net P&L

+$143.6K

Total Vol

$5.3M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 199 resolved trades (Beta(71, 83))

Cumulative Realized P&L

199 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 199 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -28.8%

Yes31W / 65L
32.3%

96 resolved positions

No44W / 28L
61.1%

72 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (199)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 199

Atlétic Club d'Escaldes vs. FK Mornar Bar: Atlétic Club d'Escaldes O/U 0.5
BUYUNDER−$18
Shares37.7
Total Traded$17.74
Avg Price0.470
ClosedJul 9
Will PFK CSKA Sofia win on 2026-07-09?
BUYYES+$1.2K
Shares6,510.1
Total Traded$5,273.16
Avg Price0.810
ClosedJul 9
Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova
BUYLINDA NOSKOVA+$29.5K
Shares50,000.0
Total Traded$20,499.99
Avg Price0.410
ClosedJul 9
Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-07-09?
BUYYES+$2.0K
Shares7,014.0
Total Traded$5,050.10
Avg Price0.720
ClosedJul 9
Atlétic Club d'Escaldes vs. FK Mornar Bar: Both Teams to Score
BUYNO−$10
Shares21.2
Total Traded$9.97
Avg Price0.470
ClosedJul 9
Atlétic Club d'Escaldes vs. FK Mornar Bar: O/U 1.5
BUYUNDER−$1.0K
Shares4,089.8
Total Traded$1,003.01
Avg Price0.245
ClosedJul 9
Atlétic Club d'Escaldes vs. FK Mornar Bar: O/U 2.5
BUYUNDER−$1.2K
Shares2,497.0
Total Traded$1,248.48
Avg Price0.500
ClosedJul 9
Will SK Dinamo Tbilisi win on 2026-07-09?
BUYYES+$9.8K
Shares19,999.9
Total Traded$10,199.97
Avg Price0.510
ClosedJul 9
Will FK Mornar Bar win on 2026-07-09?
BUYYES−$4.1K
Shares6,660.3
Total Traded$4,062.33
Avg Price0.610
ClosedJul 9
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
BUYNO+$1.3K
Shares19,391.5
Total Traded$8,338.33
Avg Price0.430
ClosedJul 6

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$519

Win / Loss

9W / 11L

Win Rate

45.0%

Avg Return

-26.0%

1–5 of 20

#1Atlétic Club d'Escaldes vs. FK Mornar Bar: Atlétic Club d'Escaldes O/U 0.5
Jul 9, 2026 @ 47.0¢
$100
BUYUNDER-100.0%
#2Will PFK CSKA Sofia win on 2026-07-09?
Jul 9, 2026 @ 81.0¢
+$23
BUYYES+23.5%
#3Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova
Jul 9, 2026 @ 41.0¢
+$144
BUYLINDA NOSKOVA+143.9%
#4Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-07-09?
Jul 9, 2026 @ 72.0¢
+$39
BUYYES+38.9%
#5Atlétic Club d'Escaldes vs. FK Mornar Bar: Both Teams to Score
Jul 9, 2026 @ 47.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.