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reze

Last updated Jul 15, 01:02 AM

Top activity:la-liga-winner
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$4K net profit from $9K of volume, with a 62.5% win rate across 8 trades, a 54% skill score, and a 43.5% return on volume.

Only 8 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
54%
Confidence
60.7%
Share on X

Win Rate

62.5%

Trades

8

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$4.0K

Total Vol

$9.1K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 8 resolved trades (Beta(7, 6))

Cumulative Realized P&L

8 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 8 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +6.7%

Yes2W / 1L
66.7%

3 resolved positions

No3W / 2L
60.0%

5 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (8)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–8 of 8

US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?
BUYNO+$25
Shares358.1
Total Traded$333.00
Avg Price0.930
ClosedJul 5
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
BUYNO+$933
Shares2,333.3
Total Traded$1,400.00
Avg Price0.600
ClosedJul 5
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
BUYYES+$320
Shares2,542.3
Total Traded$2,222.00
Avg Price0.874
ClosedJul 5
Will Barcelona win La Liga?
BUYYES+$1.4K
Shares4,922.1
Total Traded$3,002.49
Avg Price0.610
ClosedOct 1
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?
BUYYES−$55
Shares1,164.8
Total Traded$55.50
Avg Price0.048
ClosedApr 2
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
BUYNO−$553
Shares1,256.5
Total Traded$552.87
Avg Price0.440
ClosedNov 18
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
BUYNO+$2.4K
Shares3,352.5
Total Traded$913.40
Avg Price0.272
ClosedNov 18
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
BUYNO−$600
Shares1,212.1
Total Traded$600.00
Avg Price0.495
ClosedSep 7

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$120

Win / Loss

5W / 3L

Win Rate

62.5%

Avg Return

+14.9%

1–5 of 8

#1US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?
Jul 5, 2026 @ 93.0¢
+$8
BUYNO+7.5%
#2US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
Jul 5, 2026 @ 60.0¢
+$67
BUYNO+66.7%
#3Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Jul 5, 2026 @ 87.4¢
+$14
BUYYES+14.4%
#4Will Barcelona win La Liga?
Oct 1, 2025 @ 61.0¢
+$64
BUYYES+63.9%
#5Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?
Apr 2, 2025 @ 4.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 8 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.