0xf1ca...2738

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politics will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$229 net profit from $5K of volume, with a 100.0% win rate across 5 trades, a 55% skill score, and a 4.5% return on volume.

Only 5 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill: 55%
Confidence: 65.8%

Share on X

Win Rate

100.0%

Trades

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$229

Total Vol

$5.0K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 5 resolved trades (Beta(7, 6))

Cumulative Realized P&L

5 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 5 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

No5W / 0L

100.0%

5 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (5)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–5 of 5

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	BUYNO	1,012.9	$956.61	0.944	+$56	Jun 30
US civil war before 2027?	BUYNO	1,055.4	$1,000.00	0.947	+$55	May 9
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	BUYNO	1,294.9	$1,278.00	0.987	+$17	May 9
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	BUYNO	904.1	$809.46	0.895	+$58	Mar 14
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?	BUYNO	1,041.7	$1,000.00	0.960	+$42	Mar 6

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

BUYNO+$56

Shares1,012.9

Total Traded$956.61

Avg Price0.944

ClosedJun 30

US civil war before 2027?

BUYNO+$55

Shares1,055.4

Total Traded$1,000.00

Avg Price0.947

ClosedMay 9

Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?

BUYNO+$17

Shares1,294.9

Total Traded$1,278.00

Avg Price0.987

ClosedMay 9

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

BUYNO+$58

Shares904.1

Total Traded$809.46

Avg Price0.895

ClosedMar 14

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?

BUYNO+$42

Shares1,041.7

Total Traded$1,000.00

Avg Price0.960

ClosedMar 6

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$29

Win / Loss

5W / 0L

Win Rate

100.0%

Avg Return

+5.7%

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?Jun 30, 2026 @ 94.4¢BUYNO105.994.4¢$100+$6+5.9%

2US civil war before 2027?May 9, 2026 @ 94.7¢BUYNO105.594.7¢$100+$6+5.5%

3Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?May 9, 2026 @ 98.7¢BUYNO101.398.7¢$100+$1+1.3%

4Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Mar 14, 2026 @ 89.5¢BUYNO111.789.5¢$100+$12+11.7%

5Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?Mar 6, 2026 @ 96.0¢BUYNO104.296.0¢$100+$4+4.2%

#1Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Jun 30, 2026 @ 94.4¢

+$6

BUYNO+5.9%

#2US civil war before 2027?

May 9, 2026 @ 94.7¢

+$6

BUYNO+5.5%

#3Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?

May 9, 2026 @ 98.7¢

+$1

BUYNO+1.3%

#4Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Mar 14, 2026 @ 89.5¢

+$12

BUYNO+11.7%

#5Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?

Mar 6, 2026 @ 96.0¢

+$4

BUYNO+4.2%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 5 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.