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io-cane

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsworld-cup-winner
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$659 net loss from $16K of volume, with a 21.2% win rate across 217 trades, a 23% skill score, and a -4.2% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
23%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

21.2%

Trades

217

Net P&L

−$659

Total Vol

$15.8K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 217 resolved trades (Beta(36, 120))

Cumulative Realized P&L

217 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 217 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +20.8%

Yes40W / 58L
40.8%

98 resolved positions

No5W / 20L
20.0%

25 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (217)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 217

Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYENGLAND+$96
Shares200.0
Total Traded$104.00
Avg Price0.520
ClosedJul 6
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
BUYYES−$18
Shares18,159.9
Total Traded$18.16
Avg Price0.001
ClosedJun 30
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
BUYYES−$51
Shares50,744.8
Total Traded$50.74
Avg Price0.001
ClosedJun 30
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
BUYYES−$88
Shares88,096.4
Total Traded$88.10
Avg Price0.001
ClosedJun 30
Will UD Las Palmas achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026-27 season?
BUYNO+$0
Shares15.0
Total Traded$14.85
Avg Price0.990
ClosedJun 23
Will SD Almeria achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026-27 season?
BUYNO+$0
Shares0.9
Total Traded$0.60
Avg Price0.680
ClosedJun 23
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
BUYNO+$47
Shares100.0
Total Traded$53.00
Avg Price0.530
ClosedJun 23
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?
BUYYES−$7
Shares10.0
Total Traded$6.50
Avg Price0.650
ClosedJun 6
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$421
Shares1,266,131.1
Total Traded$1,266.13
Avg Price0.001
ClosedMay 31
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
BUYYES−$31
Shares30,821.5
Total Traded$30.82
Avg Price0.001
ClosedMay 31

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$509,725

Win / Loss

11W / 9L

Win Rate

55.0%

Avg Return

+25486.2%

1–5 of 20

#1Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 6, 2026 @ 52.0¢
+$92
BUYENGLAND+92.3%
#2Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Jun 30, 2026 @ 0.1¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Jun 30, 2026 @ 0.1¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Jun 30, 2026 @ 0.1¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will UD Las Palmas achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026-27 season?
Jun 23, 2026 @ 99.0¢
+$1
BUYNO+1.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.