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Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politicsdemocratic-presidential-nominee-2028
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$14K net loss from $463K of volume, with a 53.3% win rate across 195 trades, a 48% skill score, and a -3.0% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
48%
Confidence
35.2%
Share on X

Win Rate

53.3%

Trades

195

Net P&L

−$13.9K

Total Vol

$463.5K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 195 resolved trades (Beta(68, 73))

Cumulative Realized P&L

195 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 195 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -23.2%

Yes43W / 56L
43.4%

99 resolved positions

No52W / 26L
66.7%

78 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (195)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 195

Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$3.1K
Shares12,015.6
Total Traded$3,136.04
Avg Price0.261
ClosedJul 13
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$5.8K
Shares18,311.9
Total Traded$14,905.86
Avg Price0.814
ClosedJul 12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYENGLAND+$2.5K
Shares15,412.6
Total Traded$12,792.59
Avg Price0.830
ClosedJul 12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYNORWAY+$10
Shares544.3
Total Traded$261.66
Avg Price0.481
ClosedJul 12
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$117
Shares816.8
Total Traded$699.48
Avg Price0.856
ClosedJul 12
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$333
Shares1,042.6
Total Traded$224.56
Avg Price0.215
ClosedJul 12
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
BUYSWITZERLAND−$1.1K
Shares4,616.1
Total Traded$1,111.94
Avg Price0.241
ClosedJul 12
Will Norway be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?
BUYYES+$176
Shares463.4
Total Traded$287.28
Avg Price0.620
ClosedJul 12
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
BUYARGENTINA+$1.5K
Shares6,687.9
Total Traded$5,212.10
Avg Price0.779
ClosedJul 12
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
BUYNO+$44
Shares1,098.9
Total Traded$1,000.00
Avg Price0.910
ClosedJul 11

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$550

Win / Loss

14W / 6L

Win Rate

70.0%

Avg Return

+27.5%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 26.1¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 81.4¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#3Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 83.0¢
+$20
BUYENGLAND+20.5%
#4Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 48.1¢
+$108
BUYNORWAY+108.0%
#5Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 85.6¢
+$17
BUYYES+16.8%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.