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Zptml

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-in-2025
Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$28K net profit from $124K of volume, with a 65.6% win rate across 61 trades, a 54% skill score, and a 22.3% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
54%
Confidence
66.5%
Share on X

Win Rate

65.6%

Trades

61

Net P&L

+$27.8K

Total Vol

$124.4K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 61 resolved trades (Beta(14, 12))

Cumulative Realized P&L

61 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 61 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -32.6%

Yes7W / 10L
41.2%

17 resolved positions

No31W / 11L
73.8%

42 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (61)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 61

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
BUYYES+$2.9K
Shares6,157.9
Total Traded$3,262.63
Avg Price0.530
ClosedJul 2
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
BUYNO+$7
Shares200.0
Total Traded$192.59
Avg Price0.963
ClosedMay 8
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?
BUYNO+$79
Shares107.1
Total Traded$28.40
Avg Price0.265
ClosedMay 8
Will Chelsea vs. Brighton end in a draw?
BUYYES−$3
Shares11.0
Total Traded$2.75
Avg Price0.250
ClosedMar 31
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?
BUYYES−$84
Shares175.0
Total Traded$84.00
Avg Price0.480
ClosedMar 31
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-28?
BUYNO−$14.4K
Shares24,391.9
Total Traded$14,391.23
Avg Price0.590
ClosedMar 31
Will Brighton win on 2025-09-27?
BUYNO−$2.4K
Shares3,105.7
Total Traded$2,360.31
Avg Price0.760
ClosedMar 31
Will Monaco vs. Manchester City end in a draw?
BUYNO−$801
Shares976.9
Total Traded$801.04
Avg Price0.820
ClosedMar 31
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
BUYNO+$110
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$890.00
Avg Price0.890
ClosedMar 31
Will BNB dip to $600 in November?
BUYYES−$2
Shares106.8
Total Traded$2.24
Avg Price0.021
ClosedMar 31

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$39

Win / Loss

12W / 8L

Win Rate

60.0%

Avg Return

-2.0%

1–5 of 20

#1Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Jul 2, 2026 @ 53.0¢
+$89
BUYYES+88.7%
#2Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
May 8, 2026 @ 96.3¢
+$4
BUYNO+3.8%
#3Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?
May 8, 2026 @ 26.5¢
+$277
BUYNO+276.9%
#4Will Chelsea vs. Brighton end in a draw?
Mar 31, 2026 @ 25.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?
Mar 31, 2026 @ 48.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.