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0xEC6A...6930

Last updated Jul 15, 03:02 AM

Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$4K net profit from $11K of volume, with a 80.0% win rate across 10 trades, a 52% skill score, and a 36.5% return on volume.

Only 10 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
52%
Confidence
55.3%
Share on X

Win Rate

80.0%

Trades

10

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$3.9K

Total Vol

$10.6K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 10 resolved trades (Beta(7, 6))

Cumulative Realized P&L

10 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 10 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -33.3%

Yes4W / 2L
66.7%

6 resolved positions

No4W / 0L
100.0%

4 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (10)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 10

BUYYES+$681
Shares4,735.1
Total Traded$4,053.86
Avg Price0.856
ClosedJul 5
BUYYES+$357
Shares793.3
Total Traded$436.34
Avg Price0.550
ClosedJul 5
BUYNO+$1.4K
Shares3,150.7
Total Traded$1,710.61
Avg Price0.543
ClosedSep 30
BUYYES+$545
Shares994.3
Total Traded$358.46
Avg Price0.361
ClosedSep 30
BUYNO+$270
Shares1,710.6
Total Traded$1,440.33
Avg Price0.842
ClosedFeb 15
BUYYES$60
Shares4,285.7
Total Traded$60.00
Avg Price0.014
ClosedNov 13
BUYYES$980
Shares1,374.8
Total Traded$980.21
Avg Price0.713
ClosedNov 13
BUYNO+$740
Shares1,440.3
Total Traded$700.00
Avg Price0.486
ClosedNov 13
BUYNO+$617
Shares1,123.2
Total Traded$505.46
Avg Price0.450
ClosedAug 12
BUYYES+$260
Shares618.1
Total Traded$358.49
Avg Price0.580
ClosedAug 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$479

Win / Loss

8W / 2L

Win Rate

80.0%

Avg Return

+47.9%

15 of 10

#1Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Jul 5, 2026 @ 85.6¢
+$17
BUYYES+16.8%
#2Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?
Jul 5, 2026 @ 55.0¢
+$82
BUYYES+81.8%
#3Will Real Madrid win La Liga?
Sep 30, 2025 @ 54.3¢
+$84
BUYNO+84.2%
#4Will Barcelona win La Liga?
Sep 30, 2025 @ 36.1¢
+$177
BUYYES+177.4%
#5Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?
Feb 15, 2025 @ 84.2¢
+$19
BUYNO+18.8%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 10 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.