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nottop6896

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsfifwc-arg-cvi-2026-07-03-more-markets
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$94K net loss from $731K of volume, with a 45.1% win rate across 202 trades, a 45% skill score, and a -12.9% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
45%
Confidence
6.8%
Share on X

Win Rate

45.1%

Trades

202

Net P&L

−$94.4K

Total Vol

$731.4K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 202 resolved trades (Beta(92, 113))

Cumulative Realized P&L

202 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 202 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -7.3%

Yes7W / 6L
53.8%

13 resolved positions

No11W / 7L
61.1%

18 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (202)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 202

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
BUYYES−$10.0K
Shares17,496.5
Total Traded$9,972.98
Avg Price0.570
ClosedJul 12
Dota 2: OG vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner
BUYOG−$504
Shares1,172.0
Total Traded$504.20
Avg Price0.430
ClosedJul 12
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score
BUYYES+$15.4K
Shares28,465.2
Total Traded$13,093.97
Avg Price0.460
ClosedJul 12
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?
BUYNO−$10.0K
Shares14,084.5
Total Traded$9,999.99
Avg Price0.710
ClosedJul 12
Counter-Strike: 9z vs PARIVISION (BO5) - XSE Pro League Playoffs
BUY9Z+$1
Shares2.0
Total Traded$1.00
Avg Price0.500
ClosedJul 12
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner
BUYTEAM SPIRIT−$400
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$400.00
Avg Price0.400
ClosedJul 12
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner
BUYMOUZ−$600
Shares1,224.5
Total Traded$600.00
Avg Price0.490
ClosedJul 12
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner
BUY1WIN−$628
Shares1,839.0
Total Traded$628.00
Avg Price0.341
ClosedJul 12
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
BUYNRG−$837
Shares1,469.3
Total Traded$837.50
Avg Price0.570
ClosedJul 12
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner
BUY1WIN−$1.4K
Shares2,930.6
Total Traded$1,358.49
Avg Price0.464
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$589

Win / Loss

7W / 13L

Win Rate

35.0%

Avg Return

-29.5%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 57.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Dota 2: OG vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner
Jul 12, 2026 @ 43.0¢
$100
BUYOG-100.0%
#3Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score
Jul 12, 2026 @ 46.0¢
+$117
BUYYES+117.4%
#4Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 71.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#5Counter-Strike: 9z vs PARIVISION (BO5) - XSE Pro League Playoffs
Jul 12, 2026 @ 50.0¢
+$100
BUY9Z+100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.