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rodrigr28

Last updated Jul 14, 05:02 PM

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

Low Hit Rate, Heavy Payoffs

$18K net profit from $194K of volume, with a 28.1% win rate across 171 trades, a 31% skill score, and a 9.3% return on volume.

Profit depends more on payoff size than win frequency, so drawdowns may be uneven.

Skill
31%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

28.1%

Trades

171

Net P&L

+$18.0K

Total Vol

$194.1K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 171 resolved trades (Beta(37, 81))

Cumulative Realized P&L

171 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 171 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -44.4%

Yes12W / 42L
22.2%

54 resolved positions

No8W / 4L
66.7%

12 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (171)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 171

BUYNO+$426
Shares28,426.4
Total Traded$27,999.97
Avg Price0.985
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$1,000
Shares1,990.0
Total Traded$1,000.00
Avg Price0.502
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$500
Shares877.2
Total Traded$500.00
Avg Price0.570
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$1.4K
Shares2,869.2
Total Traded$1,400.00
Avg Price0.488
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO+$1.2K
Shares21,242.7
Total Traded$19,999.96
Avg Price0.941
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES+$3.4K
Shares8,368.2
Total Traded$4,999.99
Avg Price0.597
ClosedJul 10
BUYNO+$608
Shares20,608.7
Total Traded$20,000.69
Avg Price0.970
ClosedJul 10
BUYYES+$15
Shares5,076.1
Total Traded$999.99
Avg Price0.197
ClosedJul 9
BUYYES+$3.1K
Shares15,761.8
Total Traded$9,575.26
Avg Price0.607
ClosedJul 9
BUYNO+$342
Shares5,400.0
Total Traded$5,022.00
Avg Price0.930
ClosedJul 8

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$1,260

Win / Loss

13W / 7L

Win Rate

65.0%

Avg Return

+63.0%

15 of 20

#1Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 98.5¢
+$2
BUYNO+1.5%
#2Will England win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 50.2¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 57.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 48.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 94.1¢
+$6
BUYNO+6.2%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.