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dwFqcd4Z

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politicsnew-york-city-mayoral-election
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Wins Often, Loses Bigger

$975K net loss from $5.7M of volume, with a 73.8% win rate across 84 trades, a 61% skill score, and a -17.1% return on volume.

Frequent wins are being outweighed by entry prices, position sizing, or larger losses.

Skill
61%
Confidence
95.3%
Share on X

Win Rate

73.8%

Trades

84

Net P&L

−$975.4K

Total Vol

$5.7M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 84 resolved trades (Beta(34, 22))

Cumulative Realized P&L

84 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 84 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -11.0%

Yes17W / 7L
70.8%

24 resolved positions

No45W / 10L
81.8%

55 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (84)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 84

Spread: Argentina (-2.5)
BUYARGENTINA−$37.0K
Shares88,002.3
Total Traded$36,960.95
Avg Price0.420
ClosedJul 3
Spread: Argentina (-3.5)
BUYARGENTINA−$34.3K
Shares163,499.1
Total Traded$34,334.81
Avg Price0.210
ClosedJul 3
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)
BUYARGENTINA−$433.0K
Shares636,788.6
Total Traded$433,016.27
Avg Price0.680
ClosedJul 3
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?
BUYNO+$421
Shares4,095.0
Total Traded$3,674.19
Avg Price0.897
ClosedJul 1
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?
BUYNO−$4.7K
Shares6,009.2
Total Traded$4,676.58
Avg Price0.778
ClosedJun 30
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
BUYNO−$13.5K
Shares26,577.0
Total Traded$13,545.52
Avg Price0.510
ClosedJun 30
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
BUYNO−$2.4K
Shares2,885.3
Total Traded$2,394.81
Avg Price0.830
ClosedJun 30
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
BUYNO−$29.1K
Shares33,524.5
Total Traded$29,073.46
Avg Price0.867
ClosedJun 30
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5
BUYOVER−$77.5K
Shares180,137.7
Total Traded$77,459.20
Avg Price0.430
ClosedJun 30
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
BUYNO−$11.7K
Shares14,051.2
Total Traded$11,662.43
Avg Price0.830
ClosedJun 30

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$1,160

Win / Loss

7W / 13L

Win Rate

35.0%

Avg Return

-58.0%

1–5 of 20

#1Spread: Argentina (-2.5)
Jul 3, 2026 @ 42.0¢
$100
BUYARGENTINA-100.0%
#2Spread: Argentina (-3.5)
Jul 3, 2026 @ 21.0¢
$100
BUYARGENTINA-100.0%
#3Spread: Argentina (-1.5)
Jul 3, 2026 @ 68.0¢
$100
BUYARGENTINA-100.0%
#4Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?
Jul 1, 2026 @ 89.7¢
+$11
BUYNO+11.5%
#5US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?
Jun 30, 2026 @ 77.8¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.