User1244322
Last updated Jul 16, 02:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$140K net loss from $2.5M of volume, with a 53.9% win rate across 204 trades, a 54% skill score, and a -5.6% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 54%
- Confidence
- 84.6%
Win Rate
53.9%
Trades
204
Net P&L
−$139.6K
Total Vol
$2.5M
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 204 resolved trades (Beta(106, 92))
Cumulative Realized P&L
204 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 204 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -28.6%
71 resolved positions
54 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (204)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 204
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$803
Win / Loss
15W / 5L
Win Rate
75.0%
Avg Return
+40.1%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.