Allezpapa

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:fifwc-ury-cvi-2026-06-21-more-markets

Edge

Wallet Verdict

High-Volume Winner

$2.6M net profit from $16.1M of volume, with a 57.8% win rate across 135 trades, a 56% skill score, and a 15.9% return on volume.

The results are substantial; only the repeatability of the edge remains under review.

Skill: 56%
Confidence: 93.4%

Share on X

Win Rate

57.8%

Trades

135

Net P&L

+$2.6M

Total Vol

$16.1M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 135 resolved trades (Beta(75, 58))

Cumulative Realized P&L

135 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 135 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +6.8%

Yes25W / 19L

56.8%

44 resolved positions

No8W / 8L

50.0%

16 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (135)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 135

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?	BUYYES	999,979.9	$256,743.85	0.257	+$743.2K	Jul 12
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	BUYMAX HOLLOWAY	749,927.1	$517,449.71	0.690	+$232.5K	Jul 12
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	BUYYES	47,762.2	$12,776.39	0.268	+$35.0K	Jul 12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance	BUYENGLAND	799,996.5	$520,964.95	0.651	+$279.0K	Jul 12
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUYUNDER	549,998.3	$285,999.11	0.520	+$264.0K	Jul 9
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUYYES	6,119.8	$1,468.75	0.240	−$1.5K	Jul 9
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUYYES	351,553.9	$108,981.70	0.310	+$242.6K	Jul 7
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUYYES	187,071.5	$37,414.31	0.200	−$37.4K	Jul 7
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5	BUYOVER	171,165.8	$92,429.54	0.540	+$78.7K	Jul 7
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?	BUYNO	599,997.8	$389,998.59	0.650	−$390.0K	Jul 7

Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?

BUYYES+$743.2K

Shares999,979.9

Total Traded$256,743.85

Avg Price0.257

ClosedJul 12

UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+$232.5K

Shares749,927.1

Total Traded$517,449.71

Avg Price0.690

ClosedJul 12

Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?

BUYYES+$35.0K

Shares47,762.2

Total Traded$12,776.39

Avg Price0.268

ClosedJul 12

Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

BUYENGLAND+$279.0K

Shares799,996.5

Total Traded$520,964.95

Avg Price0.651

ClosedJul 12

France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5

BUYUNDER+$264.0K

Shares549,998.3

Total Traded$285,999.11

Avg Price0.520

ClosedJul 9

Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?

BUYYES−$1.5K

Shares6,119.8

Total Traded$1,468.75

Avg Price0.240

ClosedJul 9

Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?

BUYYES+$242.6K

Shares351,553.9

Total Traded$108,981.70

Avg Price0.310

ClosedJul 7

Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?

BUYYES−$37.4K

Shares187,071.5

Total Traded$37,414.31

Avg Price0.200

ClosedJul 7

United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5

BUYOVER+$78.7K

Shares171,165.8

Total Traded$92,429.54

Avg Price0.540

ClosedJul 7

Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?

BUYNO−$390.0K

Shares599,997.8

Total Traded$389,998.59

Avg Price0.650

ClosedJul 7

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$761

Win / Loss

12W / 8L

Win Rate

60.0%

Avg Return

+38.1%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?Jul 12, 2026 @ 25.7¢BUYYES389.525.7¢$100+$289+289.5%

2UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)Jul 12, 2026 @ 69.0¢BUYMAX HOLLOWAY144.969.0¢$100+$45+44.9%

3Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?Jul 12, 2026 @ 26.8¢BUYYES373.826.8¢$100+$274+273.8%

4Norway vs. England: Team to AdvanceJul 12, 2026 @ 65.1¢BUYENGLAND153.665.1¢$100+$54+53.6%

5France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Jul 9, 2026 @ 52.0¢BUYUNDER192.352.0¢$100+$92+92.3%

#1Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?

Jul 12, 2026 @ 25.7¢

+$289

BUYYES+289.5%

#2UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

Jul 12, 2026 @ 69.0¢

+$45

BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+44.9%

#3Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?

Jul 12, 2026 @ 26.8¢

+$274

BUYYES+273.8%

#4Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

Jul 12, 2026 @ 65.1¢

+$54

BUYENGLAND+53.6%

#5France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5

Jul 9, 2026 @ 52.0¢

+$92

BUYUNDER+92.3%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.