Gambli...ssey

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$42K net profit from $1.4M of volume, with a 57.7% win rate across 201 trades, a 57% skill score, and a 3.1% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill: 57%
Confidence: 97.3%

Share on X

Win Rate

57.7%

Trades

201

Net P&L

+$41.9K

Total Vol

$1.4M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 201 resolved trades (Beta(115, 88))

Cumulative Realized P&L

201 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 201 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -28.9%

Yes18W / 24L

42.9%

42 resolved positions

No66W / 26L

71.7%

92 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (201)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 201

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-07-12?	BUYYES	18,999.8	$7,789.92	0.410	+$11.2K	Jul 13
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals	BUYNO	633.1	$550.82	0.870	+$82	Jul 12
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Switzerland?	BUYNO	19,799.9	$17,621.93	0.890	+$2.2K	Jul 12
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals	BUYNO	19,899.8	$9,551.91	0.480	+$10.3K	Jul 12
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	BUYYES	5,155.9	$654.56	0.127	−$655	Jul 12
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUYUNDER	14,899.9	$9,833.96	0.660	+$5.1K	Jul 12
UFC 329: Zachary Reese vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Early Prelims)	BUYZACHARY REESE	9,000.0	$3,870.00	0.430	−$3.9K	Jul 12
Spread: Viking FK (-1.5)	BUYVIKING FK	2,279.0	$866.03	0.380	−$866	Jul 12
UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)	BUYTERRANCE MCKINNEY	8,000.0	$3,839.99	0.480	−$3.8K	Jul 12
Will IK Sirius win on 2026-07-12?	BUYYES	92.5	$52.71	0.570	+$40	Jul 12

Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-07-12?

BUYYES+$11.2K

Shares18,999.8

Total Traded$7,789.92

Avg Price0.410

ClosedJul 13

Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals

BUYNO+$82

Shares633.1

Total Traded$550.82

Avg Price0.870

ClosedJul 12

Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Switzerland?

BUYNO+$2.2K

Shares19,799.9

Total Traded$17,621.93

Avg Price0.890

ClosedJul 12

Lionel Messi: 1+ goals

BUYNO+$10.3K

Shares19,899.8

Total Traded$9,551.91

Avg Price0.480

ClosedJul 12

Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

BUYYES−$655

Shares5,155.9

Total Traded$654.56

Avg Price0.127

ClosedJul 12

Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners

BUYUNDER+$5.1K

Shares14,899.9

Total Traded$9,833.96

Avg Price0.660

ClosedJul 12

UFC 329: Zachary Reese vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Early Prelims)

BUYZACHARY REESE−$3.9K

Shares9,000.0

Total Traded$3,870.00

Avg Price0.430

ClosedJul 12

Spread: Viking FK (-1.5)

BUYVIKING FK−$866

Shares2,279.0

Total Traded$866.03

Avg Price0.380

ClosedJul 12

UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)

BUYTERRANCE MCKINNEY−$3.8K

Shares8,000.0

Total Traded$3,839.99

Avg Price0.480

ClosedJul 12

Will IK Sirius win on 2026-07-12?

BUYYES+$40

Shares92.5

Total Traded$52.71

Avg Price0.570

ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$462

Win / Loss

14W / 6L

Win Rate

70.0%

Avg Return

+23.1%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-07-12?Jul 13, 2026 @ 41.0¢BUYYES243.941.0¢$100+$144+143.9%

2Enzo Fernández: 1+ goalsJul 12, 2026 @ 87.0¢BUYNO114.987.0¢$100+$15+14.9%

3Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Switzerland?Jul 12, 2026 @ 89.0¢BUYNO112.489.0¢$100+$12+12.4%

4Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsJul 12, 2026 @ 48.0¢BUYNO208.348.0¢$100+$108+108.3%

5Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Jul 12, 2026 @ 12.7¢BUYYES787.712.7¢$100$100-100.0%

#1Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-07-12?

Jul 13, 2026 @ 41.0¢

+$144

BUYYES+143.9%

#2Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals

Jul 12, 2026 @ 87.0¢

+$15

BUYNO+14.9%

#3Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Switzerland?

Jul 12, 2026 @ 89.0¢

+$12

BUYNO+12.4%

#4Lionel Messi: 1+ goals

Jul 12, 2026 @ 48.0¢

+$108

BUYNO+108.3%

#5Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Jul 12, 2026 @ 12.7¢

$100

BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.