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restart77

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsworld-cup-winner
Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$83K net profit from $605K of volume, with a 48.1% win rate across 216 trades, a 48% skill score, and a 13.7% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
48%
Confidence
25.3%
Share on X

Win Rate

48.1%

Trades

216

Net P&L

+$82.7K

Total Vol

$605.0K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 216 resolved trades (Beta(105, 115))

Cumulative Realized P&L

216 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 216 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +3.1%

Yes51W / 51L
50.0%

102 resolved positions

No53W / 60L
46.9%

113 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (216)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 216

Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Argentina?
BUYYES+$468
Shares15,000.0
Total Traded$882.35
Avg Price0.059
ClosedJul 13
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Argentina?
BUYYES−$432
Shares15,000.0
Total Traded$882.35
Avg Price0.059
ClosedJul 13
Exact Score: Any Other Score?
BUYYES+$191
Shares9,000.0
Total Traded$529.41
Avg Price0.059
ClosedJul 13
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Argentina?
BUYNO+$6.6K
Shares15,000.0
Total Traded$7,500.00
Avg Price0.500
ClosedJul 12
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?
BUYYES+$191
Shares9,000.0
Total Traded$529.41
Avg Price0.059
ClosedJul 12
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 England?
BUYNO−$87
Shares4,000.0
Total Traded$3,851.97
Avg Price0.963
ClosedJul 12
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?
BUYNO−$175
Shares4,000.0
Total Traded$3,939.98
Avg Price0.985
ClosedJul 12
Exact Score: Any Other Score?
BUYNO−$85
Shares224.5
Total Traded$197.56
Avg Price0.880
ClosedJul 12
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Spain?
BUYYES−$142
Shares9,000.0
Total Traded$529.41
Avg Price0.059
ClosedJul 12
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Spain?
BUYYES+$101
Shares9,000.0
Total Traded$529.41
Avg Price0.059
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$8,708

Win / Loss

9W / 11L

Win Rate

45.0%

Avg Return

+435.4%

1–5 of 20

#1Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Argentina?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 5.9¢
+$1,600
BUYYES+1600.0%
#2Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Argentina?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 5.9¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Exact Score: Any Other Score?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 5.9¢
+$1,600
BUYYES+1600.0%
#4Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Argentina?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 50.0¢
+$100
BUYNO+100.0%
#5Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 5.9¢
+$1,600
BUYYES+1600.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.