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DimSum...eur.

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$343K net profit from $1.6M of volume, with a 46.5% win rate across 43 trades, a 46% skill score, and a 21.6% return on volume.

The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.

Skill
46%
Confidence
28.8%
Share on X

Win Rate

46.5%

Trades

43

Medium Sample

Net P&L

+$343.1K

Total Vol

$1.6M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 43 resolved trades (Beta(20, 24))

Cumulative Realized P&L

43 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 43 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -9.2%

Yes3W / 2L
60.0%

5 resolved positions

No9W / 4L
69.2%

13 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (43)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 43

BUYYES$26.6K
Shares86,455.4
Total Traded$26,559.46
Avg Price0.307
ClosedJun 30
BUYNO+$318
Shares3,970.6
Total Traded$3,652.98
Avg Price0.920
ClosedJun 30
BUYNO$35.9K
Shares60,844.6
Total Traded$35,907.99
Avg Price0.590
ClosedJun 30
BUYYES+$334.0K
Shares795,308.3
Total Traded$461,278.82
Avg Price0.580
ClosedJun 27
BUYNO+$5.9K
Shares11,112.1
Total Traded$5,222.70
Avg Price0.470
ClosedJun 26
BUYNO+$1.1K
Shares3,014.9
Total Traded$1,929.51
Avg Price0.640
ClosedJun 25
BUYNO$348
Shares514.4
Total Traded$347.56
Avg Price0.676
ClosedJun 16
BUYYES+$60.8K
Shares90,493.5
Total Traded$29,683.04
Avg Price0.328
ClosedJun 15
BUYNO$22.0K
Shares49,999.9
Total Traded$21,999.97
Avg Price0.440
ClosedJun 15
BUYNO+$31.9K
Shares50,000.0
Total Traded$18,049.99
Avg Price0.361
ClosedJun 14

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$173

Win / Loss

12W / 8L

Win Rate

60.0%

Avg Return

+8.6%

15 of 20

#1Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
Jun 30, 2026 @ 30.7¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Erling Haaland: 2+ goals
Jun 30, 2026 @ 92.0¢
+$9
BUYNO+8.7%
#3Erling Haaland: 1+ goals
Jun 30, 2026 @ 59.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#4Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?
Jun 27, 2026 @ 58.0¢
+$72
BUYYES+72.4%
#5Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals
Jun 26, 2026 @ 47.0¢
+$113
BUYNO+112.8%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.