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quanterty

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:financelighter-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch
Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$56K net profit from $3.2M of volume, with a 71.2% win rate across 205 trades, a 64% skill score, and a 1.8% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
64%
Confidence
99.2%
Share on X

Win Rate

71.2%

Trades

205

Net P&L

+$55.8K

Total Vol

$3.2M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 205 resolved trades (Beta(44, 24))

Cumulative Realized P&L

205 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 205 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -9.7%

Yes51W / 9L
85.0%

60 resolved positions

No54W / 3L
94.7%

57 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (205)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 205

Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?
BUYYES−$3.0K
Shares38,347.2
Total Traded$2,999.98
Avg Price0.078
ClosedJul 7
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?
BUYYES−$3.0K
Shares61,686.9
Total Traded$2,999.96
Avg Price0.049
ClosedJul 7
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
BUYUNITED STATES−$34.1K
Shares141,935.3
Total Traded$34,064.46
Avg Price0.240
ClosedJul 7
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?
BUYYES−$3.0K
Shares25,000.0
Total Traded$3,000.00
Avg Price0.120
ClosedJul 7
England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance
BUYENGLAND+$78.9K
Shares154,040.5
Total Traded$74,999.54
Avg Price0.487
ClosedJul 1
Will England win on 2026-07-01?
BUYYES+$59.8K
Shares79,848.8
Total Traded$19,999.97
Avg Price0.250
ClosedJul 1
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
BUYNO−$499
Shares180,180.2
Total Traded$180,000.00
Avg Price0.999
ClosedFeb 9
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
BUYNO−$31.0K
Shares51,279.4
Total Traded$30,999.71
Avg Price0.605
ClosedFeb 9
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?
BUYYES+$7.5K
Shares25,000.0
Total Traded$17,487.52
Avg Price0.700
ClosedFeb 9
Discord IPO before 2027?
BUYYES−$2.7K
Shares5,241.9
Total Traded$5,000.00
Avg Price0.954
ClosedFeb 9

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$12,565

Win / Loss

11W / 9L

Win Rate

55.0%

Avg Return

+628.2%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?
Jul 7, 2026 @ 7.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?
Jul 7, 2026 @ 4.9¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
Jul 7, 2026 @ 24.0¢
$100
BUYUNITED STATES-100.0%
#4Will United States win on 2026-07-06?
Jul 7, 2026 @ 12.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance
Jul 1, 2026 @ 48.7¢
+$105
BUYENGLAND+105.4%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.