Skip to main content
Back to Leaderboard

Odin.Valhal

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Wins Often, Loses Bigger

$479 net loss from $71K of volume, with a 88.3% win rate across 60 trades, a 80% skill score, and a -0.7% return on volume.

Frequent wins are being outweighed by entry prices, position sizing, or larger losses.

Skill
80%
Confidence
>99.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

88.3%

Trades

60

Net P&L

−$479

Total Vol

$70.9K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 60 resolved trades (Beta(42, 10))

Cumulative Realized P&L

60 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 60 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +4.2%

Yes11W / 1L
91.7%

12 resolved positions

No42W / 6L
87.5%

48 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (60)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 60

BUYYES+$163
Shares1,800.0
Total Traded$1,340.00
Avg Price0.744
ClosedJul 8
BUYNO+$72
Shares3,000.0
Total Traded$2,928.00
Avg Price0.976
ClosedJul 8
BUYNO+$85
Shares1,500.0
Total Traded$1,415.00
Avg Price0.943
ClosedJul 4
BUYNO+$81
Shares2,000.0
Total Traded$1,916.00
Avg Price0.958
ClosedJul 4
BUYNO+$36
Shares600.0
Total Traded$563.99
Avg Price0.940
ClosedJul 4
BUYNO+$160
Shares2,500.0
Total Traded$2,339.98
Avg Price0.936
ClosedJul 4
BUYNO+$375
Shares3,000.0
Total Traded$2,625.00
Avg Price0.875
ClosedJul 4
BUYNO+$31
Shares1,200.0
Total Traded$1,169.20
Avg Price0.974
ClosedJul 4
BUYNO+$74
Shares700.0
Total Traded$609.00
Avg Price0.870
ClosedJul 4
BUYNO+$90
Shares914.2
Total Traded$813.62
Avg Price0.890
ClosedJul 4

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$101

Win / Loss

19W / 1L

Win Rate

95.0%

Avg Return

+5.0%

15 of 20

#1Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Jul 8, 2026 @ 74.4¢
+$34
BUYYES+34.3%
#2Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 8, 2026 @ 97.6¢
+$2
BUYNO+2.5%
#3Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Jul 4, 2026 @ 94.3¢
+$6
BUYNO+6.0%
#4Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Jul 4, 2026 @ 95.8¢
+$4
BUYNO+4.4%
#5Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Jul 4, 2026 @ 94.0¢
+$6
BUYNO+6.4%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.