Skip to main content
Back to Leaderboard

payose

Last updated Jul 24, 05:05 PM

Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$3K net profit from $28K of volume, with a 56.7% win rate across 30 trades, a 42% skill score, and a 9.1% return on volume.

The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.

Skill
42%
Confidence
19.5%
Share on X

Win Rate

56.7%

Trades

30

Medium Sample

Net P&L

+$2.6K

Total Vol

$28.5K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 30 resolved trades (Beta(13, 18))

Cumulative Realized P&L

30 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 30 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Yes17W / 13L
56.7%

30 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (30)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 30

BUYYES$960
Shares9,999.9
Total Traded$959.90
Avg Price0.096
ClosedJul 20
BUYYES$870
Shares9,999.9
Total Traded$869.87
Avg Price0.087
ClosedJul 20
BUYYES$183
Shares9,881.6
Total Traded$182.65
Avg Price0.018
ClosedJul 20
BUYYES$1.3K
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$1,299.99
Avg Price0.130
ClosedJul 20
BUYYES$165
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$164.98
Avg Price0.016
ClosedJul 20
BUYYES$705
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$704.94
Avg Price0.070
ClosedJul 20
BUYYES$75
Shares9,999.9
Total Traded$75.00
Avg Price0.007
ClosedJul 20
BUYYES+$8.4K
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$1,595.00
Avg Price0.160
ClosedJul 20
BUYYES$279
Shares9,975.2
Total Traded$279.12
Avg Price0.028
ClosedJul 20
BUYYES$1.4K
Shares10,000.3
Total Traded$1,433.35
Avg Price0.143
ClosedJul 20

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$73,039

Win / Loss

7W / 13L

Win Rate

35.0%

Avg Return

+3652.0%

15 of 20

#1Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 20, 2026 @ 9.6¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 20, 2026 @ 8.7¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 20, 2026 @ 1.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 20, 2026 @ 13.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 20, 2026 @ 1.6¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.