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julian...mann

Last updated Jul 16, 12:01 AM

Top activity:sportsfifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14-more-markets
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$517K net loss from $1.6M of volume, with a 11.1% win rate across 126 trades, a 13% skill score, and a -32.1% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
13%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

11.1%

Trades

126

Net P&L

−$517.5K

Total Vol

$1.6M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 126 resolved trades (Beta(17, 113))

Cumulative Realized P&L

126 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 126 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Yes12W / 103L
10.4%

115 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (126)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 126

England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
BUYENGLAND−$13.4K
Shares198,029.3
Total Traded$13,359.46
Avg Price0.067
ClosedJul 15
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
BUYARGENTINA+$159.4K
Shares209,429.7
Total Traded$49,994.42
Avg Price0.239
ClosedJul 15
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
BUYFRANCE−$444.0K
Shares852,082.4
Total Traded$443,998.82
Avg Price0.521
ClosedJul 14
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Switzerland?
BUYYES−$33.0K
Shares237,273.5
Total Traded$33,000.00
Avg Price0.139
ClosedJul 12
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Switzerland?
BUYYES−$38.0K
Shares227,799.5
Total Traded$37,999.92
Avg Price0.167
ClosedJul 12
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Switzerland?
BUYYES−$19.0K
Shares158,357.2
Total Traded$19,002.55
Avg Price0.120
ClosedJul 12
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Switzerland?
BUYYES−$20.0K
Shares306,026.7
Total Traded$19,999.76
Avg Price0.065
ClosedJul 12
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Switzerland?
BUYYES−$33.0K
Shares276,327.1
Total Traded$32,999.81
Avg Price0.119
ClosedJul 12
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Switzerland?
BUYYES−$4.8K
Shares271,109.3
Total Traded$4,798.63
Avg Price0.018
ClosedJul 12
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 England?
BUYYES−$7.0K
Shares116,666.7
Total Traded$6,999.88
Avg Price0.060
ClosedJul 11

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$299

Win / Loss

2W / 18L

Win Rate

10.0%

Avg Return

-15.0%

1–5 of 20

#1England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Jul 15, 2026 @ 6.7¢
$100
BUYENGLAND-100.0%
#2England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Jul 15, 2026 @ 23.9¢
+$319
BUYARGENTINA+318.9%
#3France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
Jul 14, 2026 @ 52.1¢
$100
BUYFRANCE-100.0%
#4Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Switzerland?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 13.9¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Switzerland?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 16.7¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.