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0xD48B...7650

Last updated Jul 15, 01:02 AM

Top activity:new-york-city-mayoral-election
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$2K net profit from $9K of volume, with a 62.5% win rate across 8 trades, a 49% skill score, and a 21.3% return on volume.

Only 8 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
49%
Confidence
45.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

62.5%

Trades

8

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$1.9K

Total Vol

$9.0K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 8 resolved trades (Beta(6, 7))

Cumulative Realized P&L

8 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 8 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Yes5W / 3L
62.5%

8 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (8)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–8 of 8

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
BUYYES+$289
Shares2,955.2
Total Traded$2,666.00
Avg Price0.902
ClosedJul 8
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?
BUYYES+$515
Shares1,642.1
Total Traded$1,126.87
Avg Price0.686
ClosedJul 8
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
BUYYES−$51
Shares221.7
Total Traded$51.00
Avg Price0.230
ClosedMar 31
Will Barcelona win La Liga?
BUYYES+$1.4K
Shares3,583.9
Total Traded$2,222.00
Avg Price0.620
ClosedOct 2
Liverpool wins the Premier League?
BUYYES+$49
Shares269.7
Total Traded$211.46
Avg Price0.784
ClosedApr 3
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency?
BUYYES−$916
Shares1,991.6
Total Traded$916.15
Avg Price0.460
ClosedNov 15
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
BUYYES+$1.2K
Shares2,433.5
Total Traded$1,185.16
Avg Price0.487
ClosedNov 15
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
BUYYES−$587
Shares1,012.3
Total Traded$587.12
Avg Price0.580
ClosedSep 9

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$49

Win / Loss

5W / 3L

Win Rate

62.5%

Avg Return

-6.2%

1–5 of 8

#1Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Jul 8, 2026 @ 90.2¢
+$11
BUYYES+10.8%
#2Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?
Jul 8, 2026 @ 68.6¢
+$46
BUYYES+45.7%
#3Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Mar 31, 2026 @ 23.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Barcelona win La Liga?
Oct 2, 2025 @ 62.0¢
+$61
BUYYES+61.3%
#5Liverpool wins the Premier League?
Apr 3, 2025 @ 78.4¢
+$28
BUYYES+27.6%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 8 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.