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Gold.Mansacks

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportswho-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair
Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$5K net profit from $423K of volume, with a 54.5% win rate across 202 trades, a 54% skill score, and a 1.2% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
54%
Confidence
80.4%
Share on X

Win Rate

54.5%

Trades

202

Net P&L

+$5.2K

Total Vol

$423.5K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 202 resolved trades (Beta(66, 57))

Cumulative Realized P&L

202 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 202 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -7.3%

Yes12W / 17L
41.4%

29 resolved positions

No18W / 19L
48.6%

37 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (202)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 202

UFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)
BUYLONEER KAVANAGH−$1.7K
Shares2,500.0
Total Traded$1,724.98
Avg Price0.690
ClosedJul 12
UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)
BUYMARIO BAUTISTA+$700
Shares1,249.9
Total Traded$549.96
Avg Price0.440
ClosedJul 12
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
BUYNIKITA KRYLOV−$1.5K
Shares3,250.0
Total Traded$1,490.00
Avg Price0.458
ClosedJul 12
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+$990
Shares3,000.0
Total Traded$2,010.00
Avg Price0.670
ClosedJul 12
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)
BUYBENOÎT SAINT DENIS−$2.3K
Shares4,092.1
Total Traded$2,326.58
Avg Price0.569
ClosedJul 12
UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)
BUYTERRANCE MCKINNEY−$1.2K
Shares2,250.0
Total Traded$1,189.99
Avg Price0.529
ClosedJul 12
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$260
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$9,740.00
Avg Price0.974
ClosedJul 7
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$93
Shares6,666.0
Total Traded$4,379.56
Avg Price0.657
ClosedJul 7
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
BUYYES−$1.5K
Shares15,000.0
Total Traded$4,644.64
Avg Price0.310
ClosedJul 4
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
BUYNO+$2.0K
Shares7,499.3
Total Traded$5,512.00
Avg Price0.735
ClosedJul 1

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$980

Win / Loss

7W / 13L

Win Rate

35.0%

Avg Return

-49.0%

1–5 of 20

#1UFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 69.0¢
$100
BUYLONEER KAVANAGH-100.0%
#2UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 44.0¢
+$127
BUYMARIO BAUTISTA+127.3%
#3UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 45.8¢
$100
BUYNIKITA KRYLOV-100.0%
#4UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 67.0¢
+$49
BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+49.3%
#5UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 56.9¢
$100
BUYBENOÎT SAINT DENIS-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.