Skip to main content
LUCKORSKILL
Back to Leaderboard

cigarettes

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsworld-cup-winner
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$45K net loss from $1.5M of volume, with a 51.8% win rate across 612 trades, a 52% skill score, and a -3.0% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
52%
Confidence
78.8%
Share on X

Win Rate

51.8%

Trades

612

Net P&L

−$45.4K

Total Vol

$1.5M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 612 resolved trades (Beta(319, 299))

Cumulative Realized P&L

612 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 612 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +8.2%

Yes84W / 58L
59.2%

142 resolved positions

No131W / 126L
51.0%

257 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (612)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 612

Will Austin Reaves play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?
BUYNO+$0
Shares20.0
Total Traded$19.98
Avg Price0.999
ClosedJul 13
Spread: Dallas Wings (-9.5)
BUYCHICAGO SKY+$58
Shares260.1
Total Traded$202.42
Avg Price0.778
ClosedJul 13
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Imperial (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #2 Playoffs
BUYLARGADOSYPELADOS−$13
Shares41.4
Total Traded$12.83
Avg Price0.310
ClosedJul 13
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces
BUYLAS VEGAS ACES−$18
Shares56.6
Total Traded$17.95
Avg Price0.317
ClosedJul 13
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings
BUYDALLAS WINGS+$18.3K
Shares28,683.5
Total Traded$10,396.09
Avg Price0.362
ClosedJul 13
Will Austin Reaves play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?
BUYNO+$0
Shares20.0
Total Traded$19.60
Avg Price0.980
ClosedJul 13
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings
BUYCHICAGO SKY−$3.1K
Shares17,891.3
Total Traded$3,129.94
Avg Price0.175
ClosedJul 13
Spread: Dallas Wings (-9.5)
BUYDALLAS WINGS−$67
Shares773.2
Total Traded$67.44
Avg Price0.087
ClosedJul 13
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 England?
BUYYES+$6
Shares13.0
Total Traded$0.26
Avg Price0.020
ClosedJul 12
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Entropy (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group C
BUYENTROPY−$18
Shares131.5
Total Traded$18.41
Avg Price0.140
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$16,412

Win / Loss

11W / 9L

Win Rate

55.0%

Avg Return

+820.6%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Austin Reaves play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 99.9¢
+$0
BUYNO+0.1%
#2Spread: Dallas Wings (-9.5)
Jul 13, 2026 @ 77.8¢
+$29
BUYCHICAGO SKY+28.5%
#3Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Imperial (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #2 Playoffs
Jul 13, 2026 @ 31.0¢
$100
BUYLARGADOSYPELADOS-100.0%
#4Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces
Jul 13, 2026 @ 31.7¢
$100
BUYLAS VEGAS ACES-100.0%
#5Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings
Jul 13, 2026 @ 36.2¢
+$176
BUYDALLAS WINGS+175.9%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.